基于组合方法的机场航油销售量预测研究——以新疆为例  

Based on Combination Method to Research for Airport Fuel Sales Forcasting

作　　者：汪群峰[1] 方志耕[1] 李波[2] 张娜[2] WANG Qun-feng FANG Zhi-geng LI Bo ZHANG Na(College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016 China College of Economics and Management, Shihezi University, Shehezi 832000, China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016 [2]石河子大学经济与管理学院,新疆石河子831300

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2017年第10期137-144,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家社科重大项目:加快推进我国自主创新能力建设的战略设计与突破口选择研究(10&ZD014)

摘　　要：为了使预测更为准确,采用了三种模型加权组合的方法对机场航油销售量预测进行了组合预测.探讨了影响新疆机场航油销售量的三大因素,并对"十三五"期间各年航油销售量进行预测与研究分析.通过研究新疆机场航油销售量与旅客吞吐量、货邮吞吐量和起降架次之间的关联关系,通过建立相关系数模型、新陈代谢灰色GM(1,1)模型和弹性系数模型对新疆"十三五"期间新疆机场航油销售量进行预测.研究结果表明,此组合模型能够较为准确的预测新疆"十三五"期间的机场航油销售量,为航油设施、设备的规划提供了理论依据.In order to make the prediction more accurate, it uses three methods of weighted combination model to forecast for airport fuel sales. This paper discusses on three factors influencing Xinjiang airport fuel sales and make the prediction and analysis of fuel sales during the years of ＂13th Five-Year＇. Through the research on relationship between Xinjiang airport fuel sales, passenger throughput, cargo throughput and movements. By establishing a correlation coefficient model, the new supersedes the old of grey GM （1, 1.） model and elastic coefficient model to forecast Xinjiang airport fuel sales during the ＂13th Five-Year＇. The results show that this model can accurately predict the Xinjiang airport fuel sales during the ＂13th Five-Year＂ and also provide a theoretical basis for fuel facilities and equipment planning.

关 键 词：航油销售量 相关系数法 新陈代谢GM(1  1)模型 弹性系数法 

分 类 号：O212.4[理学—概率论与数理统计] V351.3[理学—数学]