贸易条件与经常项目的动态变化关系——基于新开放经济宏观经济学框架的理论和“金砖五国”的实证研究  

Terms of Trade and Current Account Dynamics of the BRICs:Theoretical Analysis Based on the Framework of the New Open Economy Macroeconomics and Empirical Studies on the BRICs

作　　者：陆前进[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际金融系,上海200433

出　　处：《金融研究》2017年第5期32-46,共15页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70673011;71173042);教育部后期项目(12JHQ030);上海市哲学社会科学规划项目(2016BJB001);复旦大学理论经济学I类高峰项目的资助

摘　　要：本文理论分析认为,依赖于出口品和进口品的替代弹性,贸易条件和经常项目既可能正相关,也可能负相关。货币冲击、生产率冲击对贸易条件和经常项目的动态影响受跨期替代弹性和期内替代弹性等因素的影响。实证结果显示,长期内哈伯格-劳尔森-梅茨勒效应(Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effects,HLM effects)在巴西、中国、俄罗斯和南非是存在的,而在印度是不存在的。通过对金砖5国的实证结果显示,在货币冲击下,金砖国家不存在HLM效应;在生产率冲击下,除了印度,HLM效应是存在的。永久冲击(生产率冲击)对贸易条件有较大的影响,但是对经常项目有较小的影响;暂时性冲击(货币冲击)对经常项目有较大的影响,对贸易条件的影响相对较小。In this paper the theoretical analysis shows that depending on the elasticity of substitution of the exports and imports, the relationship between the terms of trade and current account could be either positive or negative, but in the long run it is positive, that is, the HLM effects exist. The dynamic effects of monetary and productivity shocks are affected by the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the intratemporal elasticity of substitution between the terms of trade and current account, etc. Empirical results show that HLM effects exist in Brazil, China, Russia and South Africa, while in India HLM effects do not in the long run. Through the empirical results it shows HLM effects do not exist in the 5 BRICs in the event of the monetary shock, the effects do except for india with the productivity shock. Permanent shocks （productivity shocks） play a big role in the changes of the terms of trade, but has a smaller impact on current account ; temporary shocks （ monetary shocks ） has greater impact on the current account and less impact on current account, and whether HLM effects exist depends on the sources of the shocks.

关 键 词：贸易条件 经常项目 金砖五国 哈伯格-劳尔森-梅茨勒效应 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]