活鸡价格和饲料价格的短期动态关系和长期均衡  

Chicken Price and Feed Price: Short-term Dynamic Relationship and Long-term Equilibrium

作　　者：韩冰[1] 史亚军[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京农学院经济管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《农学学报》2017年第5期96-100,共5页Journal of Agriculture

基　　金：北京市教委项目"科研基地建设-哲社基地-北京新农村建设研究"(PXM2015_014207_000013)

摘　　要：为了了解活鸡价格和饲料价格的短期动态关系和长期均衡关系,在对活鸡价格与饲料价格关系分析的基础上,采集2010年1月—2014年3月中国活鸡、玉米以及豆粕市场定价的月度数据,利用ARDL-ECM模型对它们的短期动态关系与长期均衡关系展开了评定以及测验。研究结果表明,玉米的市场定价以及豆粕的市场定价对活鸡市场定价均存在一定程度的正向促进作用,并且其能够发挥的长期的影响效应均远远超过短期的影响效应,玉米市场定价对活鸡市场定价的长期以及短期影响效应均极大程度的高于豆粕市场定价对活鸡市场定价的长期和短期影响效应。政府可以通过这一结论,及时做出反应和调整,通过调控和监管,稳定市场的玉米、豆粕、活鸡定价。To know the short-term dynamic relationship and long-term equilibrium of chicken price and feed price, based on the analysis of the relationship of chicken price and feed price, we selected chicken price, maize price and legume price from January 2010 to March 2014, used ARDL-ECM model, to determine the short-term dynamic relationship and long-term equilibrium relationship. The results show that maize price and legume price have positive influence on chicken price, and the long-term influence is much greater than the short one. Both the long-term and short-term influence of maize price on chicken price is higher than that of legume price. Based on this conclusion, government can make timely adjustment through regulation and oversight, to stabilize the market price of corn, soybean meal and chicken.

关 键 词：活鸡价格 饲料价格 短期动态关系 长期均衡关系 ARDL-ECM模型 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]