全球空间关联视角下的中国经济增长  

Global Spatial Linkage and China's Economic Growth

作　　者：刘瑞翔[1] 颜银根[1] 范金[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学政治与经济研究院,邮政编码211885 [2]江苏省行政学院经济社会发展研究所,邮政编码210009

出　　处：《经济研究》2017年第5期89-102,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AZD085);国家自然科学基金项目(71573137;71373106);江苏高校优势学科建设工程二期项目(PAPD)的资助

摘　　要：本文利用1995—2011年世界投入产出表,从全球空间关联角度对中国经济增长源泉进行分解,研究发现:(1)分析期间中国经济前向关联度增加同时,后向关联度并没有得到有效提升。考虑到增加值因素之后,中国经济在自身国际分工率上升同时,对外感应度有了大幅度提升;(2)中国经济在对亚洲地区依赖度下降同时,对北美区域经济依赖度有所上升。具体到国家层面而言,分析期间中国经济对美国依存度有所增加,对日本依存度却有所下降;(3)过去10多年来,中国经济高速增长是内、外因素共同作用的结果,全球投入产出结构变化对中国经济带来的正面冲击大多是短期和暂时的,以投资为主的国内最终品生产结构在中等收入阶段将不可持续。最后本文提出了针对性的政策建议。In the past decade, countries and regions have formed global production network through trade of intermediate products and have created technical links and linkage effects between each other. Therefore a country＇s economic growth depends on not only its own resources and production technologies, but also the international division of labor and the country＇s position in the global value chain. To analyze the source of China＇s economic growth in the context of global integration, we must consider the impact of economic spatial linkage in other countries. This paper analyzes the source of China＇s economic growth between 1995 and 2011 using the World Input-output Table under a new growth accounting framework, and provides a new idea for China＇s sustainable economic growth in the middle- income stage. The conclusions in this paper are as follows. （ 1 ） Although the influence of China＇s economy increased during the analysis period, its influence did not effectively improve during the same period. Considering the factors of income distribution, both the international division of labor rate and income distribution increased simultaneously. （2） China＇s economic dependence on Asia declined during the analysis period, while its dependence on the North American region increased. In terms of specific nations, China＇s economy was heavily dependent on the United States and Japan. Over the analysis period, dependency on the United States increased and dependency on Japan declined. （3） The change in global input-output structure benefited China＇s economy. This benefit is temporary and should weaken over time. At the same time, the structure of domestic final demand （ which depends on investment） would not be sustainable in the middle-income stage. This paper shows that the rapid growth of China＇s economy over the past decade was the result of external and internal factors. In terms of external factors, changes in global input-output structure had positive domestic multiplier, feedback and spi

关 键 词：空间关联 经济增长动力 全球投入产出模型 中等收入阶段 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]