住房市场波动与宏观经济政策的有效性  

Housing Market Fluctuation and the Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Policies

作　　者：黄志刚[1] 许伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院,邮政编码100081 [2]国务院发展研究中心,邮政编码100010

出　　处：《经济研究》2017年第5期103-116,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金："全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目(201301)";教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(14JZD016);国家社科基金重大招标项目"转型发展新阶段中国经济增长动力研究"(14ZDB120);国务院发展研究中心基础领域研究"中长期发展"项目的支持

摘　　要：本文建立了一个多部门随机动态一般均衡模型,分析住房市场波动与宏观经济运行的关系,并重点探讨商品生产部门投资效率下降的背景下,不同宏观经济政策及组合的有效性。结果表明,住房市场杠杆率上升,会放大住房部门波动,影响宏观经济稳定。当扰动来自于商品生产部门投资效率变动时,住房市场波动呈逆周期变化,需求管理可稳定产出,但会助长房价或挤出私人投资;结构性的减税降费措施可有效稳定产出,缓解住房市场波动;宏观审慎管理能有效平抑房价,但会加大产出波动。在难以精准识别减税降费力度时,货币政策、宏观审慎和减税降费等结构性措施构成的次优政策组合可以较好地兼顾稳增长、控房价和调结构,并提高社会福利。Volatility in housing markets is an important source of macroeconomic instability. The asynchronous changes in housing markets and macro-economy make it difficult to engage in the macroeconomic management necessary to achieve economic stability and healthy housing market development. It is important to clarify the following questions to improve macroeconomic management. What are the reasons for increased volatility in house prices？ Why does the housing market appear pro-cyclical in some periods and counter cyclical in others？ Which policy or policy comhination can achieve economic stability, structure balance and housing price stability simultaneously？ The paper sets up a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model： medium-scale New Keynesian model with a housing sector. Several real and nominal frictions are added to the model to fit economic cycles, including credit constraint in housing investment, price stickiness of goods, household habit formation and investment adjustment cost. Parameters are calibrated and estimated with the Bayesian-DSGE method using China＇s macro-data. The four main results are as follows. First, the type of shock determines the cyclical properties of housing markets. Housing prices and housing investment are counter cyclical under shocks of investment adjustment cost and fiscal expenditure, and are pro-cyclical under monetary policy shocks, cost shocks, house demand shocks, labor supply shocks and technology shocks. Second, a higher leverage raises volatility in house prices. Leverage amplifies housing market fluctuations, acting as a financial accelerator. House market values limit financing in the contexts of credit constraint. When housing prices rise, house market values increase, which increases financing and housing investment, further increasing housing prices. High leverages magnify the effect and increase instability in housing markets. This explains the increasing volatility of China＇s housing prices in the last decade. Third, traditional macro-d

关 键 词：住房市场 经济波动 宏观经济政策 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济] F299.23