云南水温异常与M_S≥5.0地震关系研究  

Study on the Relationship Between Abnormal Water Temperature and Earthquakes in Yunnan Area

作　　者：李琼[1] 付虹[1] 毛慧玲[1] 朱荣欢 何德强 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,云南昆明650224 [2]昆明市地震局,云南昆明650500 [3]昭通市地震局,云南昭通657000

出　　处：《地震研究》2017年第2期233-240,共8页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：云南省人民政府十项措施监测预报(jcyb2008-0601-05)项目;中国地震局监测预报司2015年地下流体指标建设项目共同资助

摘　　要：选取2009—2015年云南地区观测连续、稳定的水温观测资料共34项,采用异常过程和从属函数分析方法联合提取异常,分析水温异常与M_S≥5.0地震的关系。结果表明:该方法提取的单项异常,具有短期指示意义,与地震有较好的对应关系,但地震的漏报率较高;采用异常频次和权重集成方法提取的全省群体异常与全省的M_S≥5.0地震对应较好,减少了漏报,并可以通过置信度为97.5%的R值评分检验。按构造和地震活动进行分区后,提取小区域的水温群体异常,并只考虑对应本区的地震,则各区域内出现异常的虚报和漏报率均显著增加。分析其原因,认为水温异常和地震都是区域构造活动增强的产物,群体异常能更好地刻画区域构造活动增强,在构造活动增强的背景下是有利于地震发生的,因此区域的群体异常有更好的对应效能;异常过程和从属函数方法提取的水温异常能较好地表达震前水温变化加剧的特征,区域的群体异常可以作为云南地区有M_S≥5.0地震的短期时间判据。This paper selects the observations data of a total of 34 continuous and stable water temperature, using the aomalous process and subordinate function analysis method to extract abnormal jointly and analyze the relation- ship between water temperature and the Ms I〉5.0 earthquakes. The results show that the single anomaly extracted by this method has short- term implications and good relationship with earthquake, but increased the omission rate of earthquake; The groups anomalies in Yunnan Province extracted by anomaly frequency and weight inte- gration method have obvious correspondence with Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes, which reduce the omission, and can pass the R - value inspection of a confidence level of 97.5 % ; After Yunnan region has been divided into differ- ent areas by tectonic and seismic activity, we extracted small area groups anomalies. Only considering earthquake at the same area, then the omission and false rate of earthquake significantly increased in each area; Analyzes its reason, we found that the water temperature anomaly and earthquake are the products of increasing regional tectonic activities, and the water temperature shows a better characteristics of increasing regional tectonic activi- ties, and the earthquake will occur easily based on increasing regional tectonic activities, therefore regional groups anomalies have more correspondent potency; The temperature abnormity extracted by using the anoma- lous process and subordinate function analysis method shows the characteristic of accelerated water temperature before earthquake, and regional groups anomalies can be used as short - term time indicators of the earthquakes （ Ms≥5.0） in Yunnan region.

关 键 词：云南水温观测 从属函数方法 MS≥5.0地震 区域构造活动增强 群体异常 

分 类 号：P315.723[天文地球—地震学]