降水和人类活动对北洛河径流变化的定量化研究  

Quantitative Research of Precipitation and Human Activities on Changes of Runoff in Beiluo River Basin

作　　者：赫晓慧[1] 郑紫瑞[1] 高亚军[2] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与环境学院,郑州450001 [2]黄河水利委员会水文局,郑州450004

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2017年第3期125-129,共5页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家重点研发计划水资源高效开发利用重点专项"黄河流域水沙变化机理与趋势预测"(2016YFC0402402);国家自然科学基金"水沙变化驱动下黄河下游河道横向演变对湿地自然植被的影响研究--以黄河郑州湿地自然保护区为例"(41101095)

摘　　要：径流变化是降水和人类活动综合作用的结果,如何分离其单独的水文效应是水科学研究中的热点问题。根据北洛河流域1954—2011年实测降水、径流资料,采用M-K趋势分析法确定了突变点。在此基础上,分别利用双累计曲线法和AWY(annual water yield)模型法分离出了由降水及人类活动引起的实测径流变化量,并对其结果进行了分析。结果表明:北洛河流域实测径流呈减少趋势,2004年为突变年份;人类活动是引起流域径流减少的主要原因,其中双曲线分析法中,人类活动的影响量为6.4mm,贡献率为56%;AWY模型法表明人类活动的影响量为7.6mm,贡献率为67%。Runoff can be affected by precipitation and human activities,and how to separate their individual hydrological effects of water is a hot issue.We found the change-point of Beiluo River Basin using the method of Mann-Kendall rank correlation,according to the measured data of precipitation and run-off from 1954 to 2011.On this basis,we used hyperbolic statistics and AWY （annual water yield） model methods to separate the measured runoff changes caused by rainfall and human activity,respectively.The results showed that the measured runoff presented the trend of decrease,and there was a mutation in 2004;human activity was the main cause of runoff reduction in the river basin,the influence quantity of human activity was 6.4 mm,the contribution rate was 56％ according to hyperbolic statistics;the influence quantity of human activity was 7.6 mm,the contribution rate was 67 ％ based on AWY model method.

关 键 词：降水 人类活动 径流 双曲线统计法 AWY模型法 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]