2016-2017年中国-东盟货物贸易数量分析与预测--年度分析系列报告之十三  

A Quantitative Analysis on Trade in Good between China and ASEAN in 2016 and Its Prospects in 2017

作　　者：周菁[1] 李红[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]广西大学商学院统计学 [2]广西大学商学院 [3]中国-东盟研究院国际关系研究所

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2017年第2期3-8,共6页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

摘　　要：在全球经济复苏缓慢、国际贸易和投资疲弱的背景下,2016年中国与东盟10国的贸易总额为4522.1亿美元,同比下降4.1%,中方顺差597.7亿美元,顺差额同比收缩27.8%。中国与越南和柬埔寨的贸易额持续保持增长态势,越南首次超越马来西亚,成为中国在东盟第一大贸易伙伴。中国与东盟6个老成员国的贸易额有增有减,与马来西亚和新加坡的贸易出现了较大幅度的下滑,而与泰国贸易呈小幅度的增长,中泰贸易额首次超过中新贸易额,中菲贸易稳步增长。数据检验分析显示,中国、日本、韩国、美国与东盟的贸易均保持稳定的协整及关联关系。预测2017年,中国—东盟经贸合作具有较大的增长势头和优化空间。In the context of sluggish global economic recovery and weak international trade and investment, the total trade Volume between China and ASEAN in 2016 was US$ 452.21 billion, down about 4.1 per cent compared with the previous year, China＇s trade surplus was US$ 59.77 billion, decreased about 27.8 per cent of the trade surplus last year. The bilateral trades of Sino-Vietnam and Sino-Cambodia have maintained the steady growth; Vietnam surpassed Malaysia for the first time has become China＇s largest trade partner in ASEAN. The trade between China and the 6 old ASEAN members have both increased and decreased, the trade of Sino-Malaysia and Sino-Singapore witness a great decrease, but Sino-Thailand showed a slight increase, the trade volume of Sino-Thailand for the first time has exceeded Sino-Singapore. Analysis by econometrics test shows that the trade series of China-ASEAN, and its counterpart of Japan and Korea with ASEAN, have stable co-integration relationship between each other. Basing on the statistical model, we predict that the China-ASEAN trade in 2017 will keep a sustainable growth rate and retain optimized space and trend.

关 键 词：中国 东盟 货物贸易 数量分析 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]