考虑产业结构调整的用电量指标关联分析及负荷预测  

Correlation Analysis of Electricity Consumption Index and Load Forecasting Considering Adjustment of Industrial Structures

作　　者：杨方圆[1] 史宇超[2] 侯玉琤[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网辽宁省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,沈阳110010 [2]国网浙江省电力公司杭州供电公司,杭州310009

出　　处：《电气技术》2017年第5期19-23,29,共6页Electrical Engineering

摘　　要：近年来,我国产业结构升级进入"三期叠加"的新阶段,使得电力需求结构发生剧烈与频繁的变动。鉴于常见的电力负荷预测方法在产业结构调整期预测精度不佳的问题,本文借鉴计量经济学的向量误差修正理论,分析了用电量与三大产业之间的关联关系,探讨了用电量指标与分产业生产总值之间的相关程度,并提出了一种基于VECM模型的用电量预测方法。算例证明了该方法的适用性和有效性。In recent years, China＇s industrial structure upgrade is entering the new stage of three phase stack, which makes the power demand structure changes dramatically and frequently. In view of the common power load forecasting methods problems in the industrial structure adjustment period, this paper use vector error correction theory to analyze the relationship between total electricity consumption and the three industries, and the relationship between the electricity consumption index and gross industrial production, and a new method of power consumption prediction is proposed. Examples demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：用电量 向量误差修正模型 产业结构调整 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]