制度差异风险与中国对外直接投资——双边投资协定与贸易依存度的调节效应研究  

Institutional Difference Risk and China's Foreign Direct Investment——the Moderating Effect of Bilateral Investment Treaty and Trade Dependence

作　　者：李江[1] 卫平[1] 石大千[1] 杨婧怡[2] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院,武汉430074 [2]上海大学中欧工程技术学院,上海200444

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2017年第7期10-17,共8页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：中国科学技术协会项目"国际产业竞争中的专利战略及知识产权保护状况调查研究"(项目编号:2015DCYJ07-2)

摘　　要：本文分别从理论与实证两个层面探讨了制度差异风险对中国OFDI的影响。在理论层面通过模型构造论证了双边投资协定和双边贸易依存度对制度差异风险的调节效应:稀释效应与累积效应。在此基础上,选取2006-2015年中国"一带一路"沿线41个国家和地区样本,对理论假设进行了经验检验。研究表明:制度差异风险对中国OFDI产生负面影响且具有门槛效应,中国更倾向于投资制度风险接近的国家;双边投资协定对中国OFDI具有正向促进作用且对发展中国家作用更大,双边投资协定在一定程度上可以替代东道国的制度缺位,稀释制度差异风险对中国OFDI的负面影响;双边贸易依存度有益于中国OFDI且对发达国家作用更大,双边贸易依存度通过加强制度学习和经验积累,对制度差异风险具有反向调节作用。This paper discusses the impact of institutional difference risk on China's OFDI from two aspects of theory and empirical analysis. At the theoretical level,the model structure demonstrates the moderating effect of bilateral investment treaty and bilateral trade dependence on institutional difference risk: dilution effect and cumulative effect. On this basis,select the 2006-2015 Chinese'One Belt and One Road'along the 41 countries and regions sample,the paper empirically analyzes the theoretical hypothesis. Research shows: institutional difference risk has a negative impact on China's OFDI and has a threshold effect,China is more inclined to invest in countries close to the institutional risk; bilateral investment treaty has a positive effect on China's OFDI and a greater role for developing countries,to a certain extent,BIT can substitute for the absence of the host country's institution,dilutes the negative impact of institutional difference risk on China's OFDI; bilateral trade dependence is beneficial to China's OFDI and greater role in developed countries,through strengthening the institution of learning and experience accumulation,it has a reverse regulation effect on the institutional difference risk.

关 键 词：一带一路 制度差异风险 对外直接投资 稀释效应 累积效应 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]