石家庄市手足口病数学模型的建立及应用  

Establishment and application of hand-foot-and-mouth disease mathematical model in Shijiazhuang city

作　　者：刘立[1] 卜宪岭[1] 韩江涛[2] 张勇[3] 

机构地区：[1]石家庄市疾病预防控制中心流行病防治所,河北石家庄050011 [2]北京市大兴区疾病预防控制中心计划免疫所,北京102600 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病研究所,北京100052

出　　处：《中国妇幼保健》2017年第11期2280-2283,共4页Maternal and Child Health Care of China

基　　金：河北省卫生厅科研基金项目(20120179)

摘　　要：目的建立石家庄市手足口病动力学模型,分析疾病的发展规律,预测变化趋势,寻求预防和控制的最优策略和措施。方法采用具有年龄结构的传染病动力学模型,建立一阶偏微分方程组[15],通过数值模拟来分析石家庄市手足口病流行规律和传播机制。结果根据年龄别累计发病率函数方程,得到具有年龄结构的一阶偏微分方程组。数值模拟发现,石家庄市手足口病从3月份开始上升,高峰在4~6月份,7月份降至较低水平。发病人群集中于1~5岁。假如手足口病疫苗保持90%的免疫覆盖率,疫苗保护率达到60%,手足口病发病率就会降低一半。结论保持较高的免疫覆盖率和疫苗保护率是减少手足口病的关键环节。Objective To establish dynamic model of hand-foot-and-mouth disease（ HFMD） in Shijiazhuang city,analyze development law of the disease,predict change trend,find the optimal strategy and measures to prevent and control HFMD. Methods A dynamic model of infectious diseases with age structure was adopted to establish first order partial differential equations,numerical simulation was used to analyze the epidemic law and transmission mechanism of HFMD in Shijiazhuang city. Results According to age-specific cumulative incidence rate functional equation,first order partial differential equations with age structure were obtained. Numerical simulation found that the incidence rate of HFMD increased from March,reached the peak from April to June,and decreased to a low level in July,most of the children with HFMD aged 1-5 years old. When immunization coverage rate of HFMD vaccine mained at 90%,and vaccine protection rate reached 60%,the incidence rate of HFMD would be reduced by half. Conclusion The key links to reduce the incidence rate of HFMD include maintaining high immunization coverage rate and vaccine protection rate of HFMD.

关 键 词：手足口病 数学模型 应用 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]