基于ACUSUM的产品保证索赔监控与预警研究  

Product Warranty Claims Monitoring and Early-Warning Based on ACUSUM Control Chart

作　　者：董方岐 刘子先[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《工业工程与管理》2017年第3期135-143,共9页Industrial Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171142);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20110032110034)

摘　　要：针对传统产品保证索赔监控与预警模型稳健性差、监控能力不足等问题,在采用Nelson-Aalen估计的方法对采用最小维修策略的产品保证索赔数据进行拟合的基础上,借鉴传统累积和控制图(CUSUM)并通过对各监控阶段索赔数据的标准化处理,构建了具有快速初始响应(FIR-Fast Initial Response)的自适应累积和控制图(ACUSUM),实现了对同一阶段不同生产及销售时间产品保证索赔数据的整体监控,提高了控制图对不同偏移情况的预警能力和模型的稳健性,模型的有效性和适用性得到了实际算例的验证。To deal with poor robustness and inefficient mornitoring of traditional monitoring and forecasting models for product warranty claims, on the basis of fitting warrany claims of minimum maintenance with Nelson-Aalen estimation and reference to cumulative sum chart （CUSUM）,an adaptive cumulative sum chart （ACUSUM） with fast initial response （FIR） is created to monitor warranty claims with different production and sales time. The robustness and early warning capabilities of this control chart for different migration of warranty claims are improved and the effectiveness and applicability of this control chart are validated by a practical example in the final.

关 键 词：保证索赔数据 最小维修 监控 二维马尔科夫链 自适应累积和控制图 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计]