TPP向何处去：美国对亚太区域经济一体化的政策嬗变  

Whither the TPP:The Transformation of the United States' Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Integration Policy

作　　者：贺平[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学日本研究中心,金砖国家研究中心 [2]复旦大学两岸关系和平发展协同创新中心,上海200433

出　　处：《教学与研究》2017年第6期58-64,共7页Teaching and Research

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“RCEP与TPP背景下的中国亚太跨区域开放合作战略研究”(项目号:13CGJ029);教育部国别和区域研究指向性课题“推动金砖国家经贸领域务实合作研究”(项目号:17GBQY041)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)是美国"亚太再平衡战略"的重要组成部分,而特朗普政府退出TPP则标志着美国亚太区域经济一体化的重大政策嬗变。当前,TPP主要存在搁置、瘦身、变型、分解、消亡等五种变化可能。五种情境中,美国维系TPP的意愿不断下降,对TPP的解构和对奥巴马时期亚太政策的偏离依次递增,由此造成亚太区域经济合作格局面临的不确定性逐渐加大。在"后TPP时代",亚太区域经济一体化的外部压力有所缓解,但内部动力也随之降低。区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)、亚太自由贸易区(FTAAP)等将面临更为复杂的政策博弈和更为困难的谈判进程。"加入TPP"固然为中国提供了更多的政策选项,但当务之急仍是在RCEP等谈判上达成较高水平的阶段性成果,循序渐进地推动区域经济一体化。TPP is an important part of the U.S. ＂rebalancing strategy＂ towards Asia-Pacific, however the Trump administration＇s decision of with drawing from TPP has symbolized a signifi- cant change in the U.S. regional economic integration policy for Asia-Pacific. At present, there are mainly five scenarios for TPP＇s future, namely abeyance, diminution, transformation, decompo- sition, and demise. In the order of these five scenarios, the willingness of the United States to main- tain TPP declines, the deconstruction of TPP and the deviation from the Obama administration＇s Asia- Pacific policy increases, and the uncertainties in the regional economic cooperation gradually grows. In the ＂post-TPP era＂, the external pressure on Asia-Pacific regional economic integration will ease to some extent, but at the same time the internal dynamics will also lose its momentum. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership （RCEP） and the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area （FTAAP） will face more intricate policy game and more difficult negotiations. While ＂joining TPP＂ providesan additional policy option for China, it is imperative for China to achieve a relative- ly high-level progress in RCEP negotiations and to promote regional economic integration in a pro- gressive way.

关 键 词：TPP 美国 亚太 区域经济一体化 政策嬗变 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]