21世纪海上丝绸之路海洋环境的气候变化与风暴灾害风险探析  

The Climate Changes of Marine Environment and Storm Risk on the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

作　　者：齐庆华[1,2] 蔡榕硕[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局第三海洋研究所,厦门361005 [2]国家海洋局海洋-大气化学与全球变化重点实验室,厦门361005

出　　处：《海洋开发与管理》2017年第5期67-75,共9页Ocean Development and Management

基　　金：中国清洁生产发展机制基金项目(2014112);福建省自然科学基金面上项目(2017J01076);国家重点研发计划"全球变化及应对"重点专项(2017YFA0604900);国家海洋局第三海洋研究所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(海三科20015030)

摘　　要：海洋环境安全是21世纪海上丝绸之路(丝路)建设的重要保障。文章简要分析了丝路海洋环境关键要素和风暴以上等级灾害性热带气旋系统(简称风暴灾害)的气候变化特征,探讨了海洋环境变化和灾害风险的可能影响,并提出了有关的研究建议。分析表明,气候变化背景下,丝路海区的海水显著变暖、热比容海平面升高明显,丝路沿海洪水、风暴潮等高水位事件发生频次可能会增加,进而对港口建设和航线通畅造成较大影响。1940-2016年间,西北太平洋风暴灾害主要集中登陆和影响厦门以南沿海地区,其中,南海风暴灾害的路径分布自20世纪80年代后有向孟加拉湾周边地区拓展的趋势;登陆厦门以北的风暴灾害的路径分布和影响范围20年左右的趋势变化明显,近期有向南(厦门)集中推进的趋势,基于此,未来20年风暴灾害登陆路径和影响范围以向北迁移推进为主,这可能会在一定程度上有利于我国海上丝路建设的顺利开展和实施。而气候变化下强的热带气旋发生频次和登陆密集度有可能增加,随之可能带来更大的影响和损失。此外,北印度洋风暴灾害的影响范围也会向西和南扩展,以至经常影响阿拉伯半岛和索马里半岛;地中海西部海岸,在北大西洋飓风活动频次和强度增强的情景下,未来有可能存在风暴潮的威胁。今后加强开展气候变化与海洋环境灾害风险方面的观测和基础应用研究,是提升21世纪海上丝绸之路海洋环境安全保障水平的主要任务之一。Marine environment security is the important guarantee for the construction of 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road （MSR）.This paper briefly analyzed the characteristics of climate change in dominant sea environment elements and tropical cyclone disasters on MSR,and dis-cussed their potential impaction and risk.Some suggestions on observations and basic research were put forward for the marine environment security.The analysis showed that,under the back-ground of climate change,ocean warming and sea level rise obviously prevailed in the main sea ar-ea of MSR,associated with the increase of coastal flooding and storm surge frequency,which may largely impact on the port construction and unobstructed navigation.From 1940 to 2016,the northwestern Pacific storm disasters mainly landed on and affected coastal area south of Xiamen city.Since the 1980s,the tropical storms in the South China Sea had a tendency to expand into the surrounding areas of the Bay of Bengal.Storm disasters landing on the north of Xiamen were sub-ject to tendency changes of about 20 years,and recently tended to land southward.Based on this,in the next 20 years,landing path and influence scope of storm disasters are very likely to give prior-ity to northward migration,which may to some extent,conducive to the implementation of the construction on MSR in China.However,with high degree of landing aggregation,strong tropical cyclone frequency under climate change is likely to increase,which can bring a greater impact and losses.In addition,the influence of the northern Indian Ocean storm disaster will expand westward and southward,so that often affect the Arabian Peninsula and Somalia Peninsula.The west coastal of the Mediterranean Sea,in the frequency and strength enhancement scenario of north Atlantic hurricane activity,may face higher threat of storm surge.In the future,observations and basic re-search on the climate change and marine environment disaster risk should be strengthened,to im-prove the level of maritime environment security of the 21

关 键 词：21世纪海上丝绸之路 海表温度 热比容海平面 热带气旋 海洋环境安全保障 

分 类 号：P76[天文地球—海洋科学]