经济全球化背景下的贸易战:理论分析与中国应对策略  

Trade war under the background of economic globalization:theoretical analysis and China's countermeasures

作　　者：柯建飞[1,2] 于立新[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [2]宁波大学商学院 [3]中国社会科学院对外经贸国际金融研究中心

出　　处：《全球化》2017年第6期71-84,共14页Globalization

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"扩大我国服务业对外开放的路径与战略研究"(项目号:14ZDA084)的阶段性成果之一

摘　　要：经济全球化趋势不可逆转,各国之间的经济联系日益紧密。当前世界经济复苏乏力,贸易保护势力抬头,贸易摩擦有升级趋势。借鉴兰切斯特方程的作战损耗理论,以两大国之间贸易数据为依据,模拟经济全球化背景下的两国贸易战的影响。研究结果显示:贸易战对双方贸易都产生了巨大的冲击。总体上,贸易顺差的国家受到的冲击更大,考虑声誉激励的贸易战,持包容开放贸易政策国家的贸易先下降然后缓慢回升。在分析中美双边贸易关系的现状与趋势的基础上结合中国实际提出了拓展市场、提升自身实力、完善制度和预警应对的政策建议。The trend of economic globalization is irreversible,and economic ties among countries are becoming increasingly close.At present the world economic recovery is weak,trade protection forces gain ground,and trade frictions are escalating.From the operational loss theory of the Lanchester equation using the trade data between the two powers,we simulate the impact of trade between the two countries under the background of economic globalization.The results of the study show that a trade war will have a huge impact on bilateral trade with generally trade surplus countries to suffer the more,and considering the reputation incentive trade war,the trade volume of countries pursuing inclusive and open trade policy decreases and then slowly rises.Based on the analysis of current situation and trends of bilateral trade relations between China and the United States,and combined with China's actual situation,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions of countermeasures on expanding the market,enhancing own strength,perfecting the system and early warning system.

关 键 词：经济全球化 贸易战 兰切斯特方程 中美贸易 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F757.12[经济管理—产业经济]