哈尔滨市建设用地动态变化及趋势预测  

Dynamic change and trend forecast of construction land in Harbin City

作　　者：李玮[1] 宋戈[1,2] 李瑞雪[1] 李志明[1] 滕鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学资源与环境学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [2]东北大学土地管理研究所,辽宁沈阳110819

出　　处：《东北师大学报（自然科学版）》2017年第2期149-156,共8页Journal of Northeast Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41071346;41571165);教育部学科点博导类基金资助项目(20112325110007)

摘　　要：建设用地是人们生产生活及社会经济发展的空间载体,是土地利用的重要组成部分.以哈尔滨市辖区为研究区,在分析哈尔滨市辖区1994—2013年建设用地动态变化、探讨其驱动机制的基础上,构建了灰色马尔科夫预测模型,并对其未来城市建设用地面积进行了预测.结果表明:(1)1994—2013年哈尔滨市城市建设用地面积整体呈上升趋势,尤以1999—2006年最为明显,年均增长率为14.39%.2007—2013年哈尔滨市建设用地结构供应量变化显著.(2)随着人口的增加,人均建设用地面积也相应增加.(3)1994—2013年哈尔滨市城市建设用地面积的扩大不尽合理,其建设用地变化弹性系数为3.08,远大于1.12的合理值.只有少数年份的建设用地变化弹性系数在合理值范围内,说明哈尔滨市应放慢建设用地的扩大速度.(4)人口、经济及交通因素、产业结构因素成为哈尔滨市城市建设用地变化的主要驱动力.(5)灰色马尔科夫模型预测精度高于灰色预测模型,经预测,2020年哈尔滨市城市建设用地面积为476.557 4km^2,2025年为538.162 6km^2.Construction land is the space carrier of people＇s production and life and social economy development. It is an important part of land use. This article takes Harbin city as the study area,based on the analysis of Harbin city construction land dynamic change from 1994 to 2013, on the basis of building the gray markov prediction model,and forecast its future construction land area. The results showed that： （1） The urban construction land area in Harbin as a whole is on the rise during 1994- 2013,especially in the most apparent in 1999--2006, the annual growth rate is 14. 39%. In 2007-- 2013,the supply of construction land structure in Harbin city changed significantly. （2） With the increase of the urban population in Harbin,the per capita urban construction land area of the city also increase accordingly. （3）The expansion of the construction land area of Harbin city in 1994--2013 is not reasonable,the elastic coefficient of the construction land is 3.08, which is much larger than the reasonable value of 1.12. Only a few years of construction land change elasticity within a reasonable range, the expansion of construction land in Harbin should be slow down. （4） Demographic and economic factors, industry structure factors are the main driving force of Harbin city construction land change. （5）The grey Markov model prediction accuracy is higher than that of the grey prediction model,by forecasting,the urban construction area of Harbin City in 2020 is 476. 557 4 km^2 ,which is 538. 162 6 km^2 in 2025.

关 键 词：建设用地 动态变化 驱动力 规模预测 哈尔滨市 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]