基于库兹涅茨曲线的中国工业用水与经济增长关系研究  

The relationship analysis between Chinese industrial water use and economic growth based on the Kuznets Curve

作　　者：张月[1] 潘柏林[1] 李锦彬 顾阿伦[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084 [2]中船重工集团公司第七一四研究所低碳能源研究中心,北京100012

出　　处：《资源科学》2017年第6期1117-1126,共10页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71573145;71203120)

摘　　要：中国人均水资源量仅为世界人均水平的29%,且经济快速增长、工业用水需求也与日俱增,如何平衡经济发展与工业用水之间的关系是目前需要分析与解决的重要问题。本文将全国分为八大经济区域,建立约化模型,验证不同特征的工业用水EKC(Environmental Kuznets Curve)关系。结果显示中国工业用水发展水平符合EKC特征,人均工业用水与人均GDP存在着"倒U"型关系。拐点的出现主要由于技术创新、产业结构升级等因素导致,地区发展不平衡导致人均工业用水拐点不同。工业用水EKC曲线的研究对协同经济发展与工业用水的研究有着重要的意义,需要通过调整产业结构、提高用水效率、研发前沿技术等方法,使工业用水EKC转折点的尽早实现。Global inequity and unbalanced water resources have been critical issues for many years. Chinese water resources per capita are only 1/4 of the global average. As the Chinese economy grows rapidly, the demands for Chinese industrial water are increasing. It is therefore important to balance the relationship between economic growth and industrial water use. To make industrial water use decisions economically, we divided China into eight economic areas and based on a reduced form model verified the industrial Kuznets Curve in different areas. We used water use per capita and GDP per capita of the eight economic areas from 2002 to 2014 and applied unit root tests and co-integration tests and curve fitting. The result indicates that the trend in Chinese industrial water use fits the Kuznets Curve, and that industrial water use per capita and GDP per capita show an inverted U type relationship. The different economic areas have different turning points due to different levels of technological development and industrial structure. A study of industrial water use trends has much meaning for co-integrating economic development and industrial water use. The government should try to achieve an earlier turning point in the Kuznets Curve by optimizing industrial structure, increasing water-use efficiency and developing advanced technologies.

关 键 词：环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC) 工业用水 经济增长 约化模型 中国 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济] TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]