从云南地震预报实践探讨地震中短期预测的新途径  

Discussion of new approaches to medium-short-term earthquake forecast in practice of the earthquake prediction in Yunnan

作　　者：付虹[1] 倪喆[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,昆明650224

出　　处：《国际地震动态》2017年第6期2-8,共7页Recent Developments in World Seismology

基　　金：中国地震局"监测预报改革设计研究--地震预测预报20年发展设计"专项资助

摘　　要：通过回顾云南多年地震预测实践,认为目前定点前兆观测到的异常基本上都是地球物理场上的信息,前兆异常幅度增大、数量增多可以用于判定地震的发震时间,但难于得到前兆异常与地震在空间上的关联性,因此,基本上不能用于地点预测;云南80%的6级地震前,震中附近有地震活动增强的现象,地震活动判定地点优于定点前兆观测异常;近年来流动地磁观测异常判定地点较好,以2014年鲁甸6.5级地震为例,震源区震前1年尺度的流动地磁测量异常区域,较地震活动增强区域预测时间短、区域小;笔者认为,针对震前的流动地磁测量观测到的物性变化,如果能在中小地震活动显著增强区域,架设密集台阵,捕捉物性变化的动态过程,对于地震的成因机理可能会得到最客观的认识,从而使地震中短期预测水平的大幅度提高成为可能。Atter retrospection of years of practice of the earthquake prediction in Yunnan area, it is widely considered that the fixed-point earthquake precursory anomalies mainly reflect the field information. The increase of amplitude and number of precursory anomalies could help to determine the original tme of earthquakes. However, itis difficult toob ta in the spatial relevance between earthquakes and precursory anomalies, thus hardly to predict the spatial locations of earthquakes using precursory anomalies. The past practices have shown that the seismic activities are superior to the precursory anomalies in predicting earth-quakes locations, resulting from the increased seismicity observed before 80% M 6. 0 earth-quakes in Yunnan area. The mobile geomagnetic anomalies are turned out to be helpful in predicting earthquakes locations in recent year. For instance, the forecasted earthquakes occurring tme and area derived from the 1-year-scale geomagnetic anomalies before the M 6. 5 Ludian earthquake in 2014 are shorter and smaller than which derived from the seismicityenhancement region. According to the past works, the author believes that the medium-short-term earthquake [forecast level, as well as objective understanding of the seismogenic mechanisms, could be substantially improved by the densely implemented observation array to capture the dynamic process of physical property changes in the seismicity enhanced region of medium to small earthquakes.

关 键 词：地震前兆 地磁测量 物性变化 地震机制 中短期预测 云南 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]