海外矿山项目并购外部风险评价  

External Risk Evaluation Model for Overseas Mining Projects' M&A

作　　者：郑明贵[1] 文唯 杨欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西理工大学矿业贸易与投资研究中心,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2017年第7期825-829,共5页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"海外矿业投资经营管理风险评估与预警系统研究"(编号:12CGL008);江西理工大学清江青年英才支持计划项目"‘一带一路’沿线国家矿产资源开发利用风险评价技术研究"(编号:16QJYC012)

摘　　要：基于现有文献,对海外矿山项目并购的主要外部风险因素进行了识别。在海外矿山项目并购外部风险评价指标体系中加入金融风险等相关指标,运用TFN-RS模型确定各评价指标权重,结合主客观赋权的双重优势,将云理论与物元理论相结合,运用Matlab软件编程计算出各指标的风险等级隶属度,构建了海外矿山项目并购外部风险评价的云物元模型,提高了对风险模糊性和不确定性的评价精度。以我国河北钢铁集团并购加拿大阿尔德隆公司Kami铁矿项目为例进行应用,结果显示,该项目的风险等级为"低",但社会文化风险高。Based on the existing literature, this paper distinguished the main external risk factors of the overseas mining M＆A, and supplementedthe relevant financial risk indexes into the external risk assessment index system. Meanwhile, this paper applied the TFN - RS model to define theweights of each index which combined the advantage of subjective weight with objective weight. Based on the combination of cloud theory and the mat-ter - element theory, the related degree of each index to each risk level was calculated by Matlab software, thus an external risk assessment model forthe overseas mining M＆A was built, which had better assessment precision especially to the fuzziness and uncertainty of the external risks. Finally, themodel was applied with a typical case, that was, Hebei Steel Group Co., Ltd＇ s acquisition of the Kami iron ore of Alder lung Corporation in Canada.The results showed the risk level of the project was ＂low＂ ,but the social and cultural risk was ＂high＂.

关 键 词：海外矿山项目并购 外部风险 三角模糊数 粗糙集 云物元 

分 类 号：X921[环境科学与工程—安全科学]