基于直觉模糊多属性群决策的压裂风险排序  

Fracturing Risk Ranking Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multi-attribute Group Decision-making

作　　者：李晓威[1] 顾海鹏[1] 柏明星[2] 宋洪才[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北石油大学数学与统计学院,黑龙江大庆163318 [2]东北石油大学石油工程学院,黑龙江大庆163318

出　　处：《当代化工》2017年第5期953-957,961,共6页Contemporary Chemical Industry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金;项目号:51504068;中国石油科技创新基金资助:低渗透油藏二氧化碳驱及封存中沿生产井逃逸评价(编号:2015D-5006-0202);东北石油大学校青年基金(编号:NEPUQN2015-1-18)

摘　　要：针对目前低渗透油气藏压裂技术风险评估的不确定性及方法的单一性。应用直觉三角模糊数理论和多属性群决策理论,建立一种新的压裂风险排序模型,提高了风险排序的准确度。首先,确定压裂风险影响指标体系和风险因素的属性。其次,收集专家对压裂风险影响指标在各风险属性下的判断信息,并提出一种新的确定直觉模糊数中隶属度和非隶属度的方法,且应用该方法将判断信息转换为相应的三角模糊数和直觉三角模糊数。然后,确定各风险属性的熵权并确定不同方案的风险综合值;最后,利用逼近理想解法和直觉模糊数距离排序法对不同方案的风险综合值进行排序,并给出两种方法的比较。结果表明模型是有效的,并且有一定的实际应用价值。Aiming at the uncertainty in risk assessment of fracturing technology for low permeability oil and gas reservoirs, a new fracturing risk ranking model was established by the intuitionistic triangular fuzzy number theory and multiple attribute group decision making theory to improve the accuracy of the risk ranking. Firstly, the properties of fracturing risk index system and risk factors were determined. Secondly, experts＇ judgment information about the risk factors was collected, and a new method was proposed to determine the number of intuitionistic fuzzy membership degree and the non-membership degree, and the judgment information was converted to the corresponding triangular fuzzy number and triangular fuzzy number by the method. Then, the entropy of risk properties was determined as well as comprehensive value of the risk of different plans; Finally, the approximate distance ideal solution and intuitionistic fuzzy number ranking method were used to rank the risk comprehensive value of different plans, and comparison of the two methods was carried out. The results show that the established model is effective, and has certain actual application value.

关 键 词：直觉三角模糊数 压裂风险评价排序 压裂风险影响指标 多属性群决策 

分 类 号：TE357[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]