涉农企业信用评价动态指标隶属度向量判别研究  

A Study on Distinguishing of Dynamic Index Subordinated Vector for Credit Evaluation of the Agricultural Enterprise

作　　者：朱清香[1,2] 许楠[1,2] 刘亭妤 刘晶[3] 

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300401 [2]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [3]河北工业大学计算机科学与软件学院,天津300401

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2017年第12期57-63,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：河北省科技计划项目:京津冀区域涉农电子商务发展现状及推广渠道研究(16450303D);河北省社科基金:大数据背景下河北省涉农电子商务P2P网络信贷平台创新模式研究(HB15GL112)

摘　　要：对涉农企业信用评价中的动态指标的隶属度向量进行判别研究.首先借鉴X-12-A砒MA季节调整法的思想对信用数据进行剥离,构建一种过程连续性的动态信用指标;其次通过时间序列三指数平滑模型对动态信用数据的变化进行预测,得到动态信用指标隶属度向量;再次,结合熵权-AHP法确定的权重,确定动态信用指标的综合隶属度向量;最后实证检验了方法在企业信用评价中应用的有效性.The paper studied on distinguishing of dynamic index subordinated vector for credit evaluation of the agricultural enterprise. Firstly, based on the ideas of X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method to strip of credit data for building a process continuity of dy- namic credit index. Secondly, predicting the change of dynamic credit data by using time sequence of three exponential smoothing model which gets the dynamic index subordinated vector. Next, combination of entropy-AHP method to determine the weight that confirming the comprehensive subordinated vector of dynamic credit index. Finally, empirically tested that this method is applied in the enterprise credit evaluation is effective.

关 键 词：动态信用评价 涉农企业 X-12-ARIMA季节调整法 时间序列三指数平 滑模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F324