黑龙江垦区农业生产与面源污染的脱钩分析与调控模拟  

Decoupling Analysis and Simulation of Agricultural Production and Nonpoint Source Pollution in the Heilongjiang Land Reclamation Area

作　　者：张郁[1] 刘洁[2] 杨青山[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学地理科学学院,中国吉林长春130024 [2]吉林大学地球科学学院,中国吉林长春130061

出　　处：《经济地理》2017年第6期177-182,共6页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271555;41571115)

摘　　要：农业面源污染已成为我国水体污染的主要来源。作为国家重要的商品粮基地和绿色食品生产基地,黑龙江垦区在获得粮食生产"十二"连增的同时,农业面源污染问题也不容忽视。农业生产与面源污染的脱钩分析结果表明,2001—2012年,黑龙江垦区粮食生产与施用化肥造成的面源污染之间多次出现扩张性耦合关系,粮食增产对化肥的依赖仍很大;粮食生产与源于农药的面源污染之间关系复杂,弱脱钩类型居多,也存在强脱钩与强耦合类型;畜牧业生产与其面源污染之间以弱脱钩类型居多。以宝泉岭分局为例、应用SD模型的模拟结果表明,到2020年,牲畜养殖造成的面源污染下降幅度最大,其次为化肥施用造成的面源污染,农药施用造成的面源污染下降空间最小。Agricultural nonpoint source pollution has become the main source of water pollution in our country. Heilongjiang Land Reclamation Area （HLRA for short） is the important base for both commodity grain and production of green food, accompanied with increase of production for continuous 12 years, meantime, the problem of nonpoint source pollution can＇ t be ignored in this study area. Results of decoupling nonpoint source pollution （out of fertilizer） from crop production showed that the state of expansive coupling occurred more, which indicated crop production＇ s more dependence on fertilizers; for the relationship between crop production and nonpoint source pollution（out of pesticide）, the state of weak decoupling occurred more, but strong decoupling and strong coupling coexisted; for the relationship between livestock production and nonpoint source pollution, the state of weak decoupling occurred more. Taking Baoguanling branch as an example, based on the application of SD model to simulate future pollution control, results show that nonpoint source pollution caused by livestock drops drastically, followed by nonpoint source pollution and caused by fertilizer, and there is the least space for reducing nonpoint source pollution caused by pesticide by 2020. This result can provide reference for prevention and control of nonpoint source pollution in the future in the study area.

关 键 词：绿色发展 农业生产 面源污染 化肥与农药 脱钩分析 SD模型 

分 类 号：F304[经济管理—产业经济]