经济部门间风险传导的微观机制与系统性影响——基于资产负债表分析法的研究  

The Microcosmic Mechanism and Systemic Effects of Risk Conduction among Different Economic Sectors——Based on the Research of Balance Sheet

作　　者：宋美喆[1] 胡丕吉[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南财政经济学院,湖南长沙410205 [2]中国人民银行长沙中心支行,湖南长沙410005

出　　处：《福建金融管理干部学院学报》2017年第1期23-32,共10页Journal of Fujian Institute of Financial Administrators

基　　金：2015年度湖南省社科基金项目(15JD06)

摘　　要：基于资产负债表分析法,分别将企业部门、居民部门、金融部门和公共部门作为风险源头考察风险在各部门间的传导路径和机制,并探讨了外部风险冲击对各部门资产负债表的关联影响。在此基础上,运用2009年12月—2016年9月湖南省相关数据进行了实证分析。结果表明:居民部门消费水平的提高对企业部门利润和银行资产质量有显著正向影响;企业部门的利润减少会引起居民消费水平的降低和银行不良贷款率的攀升;公共部门收入的下降会迫使居民减少消费支出;而公共部门收入的相关决策更多地表现为外生性,财政收入的调节具有相对较大的空间和弹性。进而提出建议:坚持稳健的货币政策来防止居民和企业部门过度投机,实施积极财政政策来刺激居民消费支出和企业利润增长,运用宏观审慎管理来降低金融部门风险,以此拉动经济增长并降低宏观经济系统性风险。Based on the research of balance sheet, we made the enterprise sector, the household sector, the financial sector and the public sector as the risk source respectively, and studied the micro- cosmic mechanism of risk conduction among different sectors. Then we did the empirical analysis on the related data of Hunan province in December 2009 - September 2016. The results show that the con- sumption level of household sector increases the profits of enterprise sector and the quality of bank as- sets significantly. The reduce of enterprise sector＇s profits will lower the consumption level of house- hold sector and increase the bank non-performing loan ratio; The public sector revenue decline will force household to reduce consumer spending; And the decision of public sector shows more exoge- nous, there is a relatively large space and flexibility of the adjustment. At last we give advices that ad- here to the prudent monetary policy to prevent excessive speculation of the enterprise sector and the household sector. Follow a pro-active fiscal policy to stimulate growth of the consumption and corpo- rate profits. Use the macro-prudential management to reduce the risk of the financial sector.

关 键 词：经济部门 风险传导 资产负债表分析法 系统性影响 

分 类 号：F016[经济管理—政治经济学]