基于PSR和熵权物元可拓模型的甘南高原生态环境风险评价研究  

Research on Risk Assessment of the Ecological Environment in Gannan Plateau Based on the PSR and Entropy Weight Matter-Element Extension Model

作　　者：岳东霞[1] 曾建军[1] 邹明亮[1] 郭建军[1] 李凯[1] 杨超[1] 陈冠光 YUE Dongxia ZENG Jianjun ZOU Mingliang GUO Jianjun LI Kai YANG Chao CHEN Guanguang(School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, Chin)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《生态经济》2017年第7期175-180,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目"甘南高原环境灾害风险评价与土地沙化研究"(LZUJBKY-2015-K10);国家自然科学基金项目"疏勒河流域生态承载力--水资源耦合机制及优化调控模拟研究"(41671516);国家自然科学基金项目"气候与土地利用变化对石羊河流域水资源影响研究"(51369003);甘肃省国际科技合作专项基金项目"中东亚干旱区典型退化生态系统遥感监测与生态修复效应评价"(1604WKCA002)

摘　　要：甘南高原"三化"(土地沙化、土壤盐碱化、草场退化)趋于严重,生态风险评价对于制定甘南高原科学的环境管理决策具有非常重要的意义。基于压力—状态—响应(PSR)模型,选取14项能反映其生态环境风险性而彼此之间相互独立的评价指标体系,构建了基于压力—状态—响应(PSR)模型的评价指标体系。利用熵值法确定指标权重,运用物元方法和可拓理论构建甘南高原生态风险物元可拓模型,通过计算指标层、系统层和目标层的关联度,实例对甘南高原"7县1市"(合作市、临潭县、卓尼县、舟曲县、迭部县、玛曲县、碌曲县、夏河县)进行生态风险评价和风险等级确定,最后结合Arcgis绘制风险等级分区图。评价结果表明:"7县1市"自北向南随海拔增高风险性成增加状态。其中,卓尼县、夏河县处于低度风险状态,合作市处于较低度风险状态,碌曲县处于中度风险状态,临潭县、舟曲县、迭部县和碌曲县处于高度风险状态。"7县1市"对不同指标层和系统层风险等级状态也各不相同。评价结果与实际情况相符。Risk assessment of the ecological environment plays an important role in making scientific policies of environmental management of Gannan plateau as the land desertification, soil salinization and grassland degradation aggravates. An ecological environment risk assessment index system in Gannan plateau is founded P S R model by choosing 14 evaluation indexes, which are based on the connotation of the ecological environment risk assessment of Gannan plateau and integrates the quantification of assessment index and the comparability of different research regions. By applying entropy weight, an index weight is worked out; by applying property element method and extension theory, a matter-element extension model of the ecological risk is constructed; by calculating the degree of association between index layer, system layer and target layer and using accumulation curve and ecological risk index, the ecological risk assessment and risk degree of the ＂seven counties and one city＂ （Hezuo City, Lintan County, Zhuoni County, Zhouqu County, Diebu County, Maqu County, Luqu County, Xiahe County） are confirmed, and based upon all the above procedures, a zoning plan of the risk grade will be drawn out by integrating Arcgis. The results are as follows： ＂7 counties and one city＂ from north to south with the altitude increased risk to increase state. Zhuoni County and Xiahe County are in a more low risk state; Hezuo City are in a low risk state; Luqv County are in a middle risk state; Lintan County, Zhouqv County, Diebu County, and Luqv County in a high state. The risk degree state will be different for different index layers and system layers. The assessment result is coincided with the practical situation.

关 键 词：PSR 可拓理论 熵权 风险评价 甘南高原 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]