2006—2014年武汉市肺结核流行特征分析及发病预测研究  

Epidemiological Analysis and Prediction of Pulmonary Tuberculosis Prevalence in Wuhan,China,2006-2014

作　　者：彭颖[1] 杨小兵[1] 张志峰[1] 孔德广[1] 汪鹏[1] 陈邦华[1] 余滨[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉市疾病预防控制中心,湖北武汉430015

出　　处：《中国社会医学杂志》2017年第3期303-306,共4页Chinese Journal of Social Medicine

基　　金：湖北省卫生厅科研项目(JX6B102);武汉市卫生计生委公共卫生科研项目(WG14C02)

摘　　要：目的分析武汉市肺结核的流行状况,并建立模型开展预测。方法对2006—2014年武汉市肺结核疫情监测资料进行描述性流行病学分析,根据月发病序列的特点,构建Winters乘法季节指数平滑模型对2015年肺结核发病进行预测。结果武汉市共报告肺结核病例63 334例,年均发病率81.76/10万,其中男性年均发病率(114.77/10万)高于女性发病率(46.77/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ~2=10 964.142,P<0.001);青年人及老年人发病率较高;病例的职业以农民为主,占总病例数的46.91%;1—9月为发病的高峰期。Winters乘法季节指数平滑模型预测显示,2015年肺结核发病高峰幅度较2014年呈下降趋势。结论肺结核防控的重点人群为男性青年、老年人以及农民,预测模型拟合效果较好,可为肺结核的防控提供参考。Objectives To analyse the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Wuhan and construct the best-fitted model to forecast the prevalence based on data from 2006-2014.Methods Descriptive epidemiology was applied to analyse the characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis prevalence from 2006 to 2014,and Winters＇ Multiplicative Seasonal Exponential Smoothing（WMSES）model was created.Results During 2006-2014,63 334 cases were reported in Wuhan city,and the average annual incidence rate was 81.76 per 100 000 populations.The incidence of male was more than that of female,with statistically significant difference（χ^2=10 964.142,P〈0.001）.Young adults and the elderly were more likely to be infected.Reported cases mostly involved farmers（46.91%）.Peak onset would appear within January to September.The（WMSES）model revealed that the incidence of tuberculosis tends to decrease in 2015.Conclusions Male young adults and the elderly,and farmers are the high risk population,and the forecasts of the（WMSES）model were well-fitted.These findings could provide reference for tuberculosis prevention and control.

关 键 词：肺结核 流行病学 预测预警 

分 类 号：R521[医药卫生—内科学]