“一带一路”国家天然气投资绩效评价及其改进路径  

Evaluation and improvement of natural gas investment performance in the Belt and Road countries

作　　者：周娜[1,2] 吴巧生[1,2] 王然[1,2] 孙奇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)资源环境经济研究中心,湖北武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年第7期60-71,共12页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目"页岩气和煤层气开发利用的能源安全效益;环境效益及其他社会效益评价"(批准号:13AZD078)

摘　　要：运用超效率数据包络分析(SE-DEA)方法,综合考虑目标国资源现状、政治因素、经济技术、社会条件、市场体制和国际合作情况,构建天然气投资绩效评价线性规划模型,并以2003—2013年中国对"一带一路"国家的天然气投资绩效均值进行聚类,结合规模报酬和投入要素的影子价格分析,提出目标国天然气投资绩效改进路径。结果显示:(1)中国对中亚及北亚、东南亚和南亚的天然气投资普遍处于中高效区,对独联体、中东欧洲和西亚北非地区的天然气投资普遍处于中低效区。(2)高效区国家自2012年起投资绩效处于规模报酬不变阶段,技术水平和国家经济对天然气贸易的依赖程度是影响投资绩效的关键因素。(3)中效区国家投资绩效大多处于规模报酬递增阶段,从2013年起总储量、人文地理和与中国油气合作状况成为影响中效区投资绩效的关键因素。(4)低效区国家投资绩效处于规模报酬递增阶段,国家经济对天然气贸易的依赖程度和技术水平要素是影响低效区投资绩效的关键因素;此外,对于处于低效区的中亚国家资源现状是影响投资绩效的另一关键因素,政治因素则是中东欧洲和独联体国家的关键因素,东南亚和南亚地区的投资关键因素则包含社会条件。这意味着,中国要提高在"一带一路"区域的天然气投资绩效,就要针对不同地区投资现状制定改进策略。对于高效区和低效区的中亚国家,未来中国要加强同目标国政府间的沟通,达成"以技术换气条款";对中效区和低效区的中东欧洲、独联体国家可采用与油气企业合作方式降低合作风险;对低效区的东南亚和南亚国家,可签订天然气长期贸易合同。In this paper, the Super-Efficiency Data Envelopment Analysis method （ SE-DEA） was employed to construct a linear programming model for natural gas investment performance based on factors including resource status, political factors, economic technology,social conditions, market system and international cooperation. At the meantime, using the mean value of natural gas investment from 2003 to 2013 to cluster countries along the Belt and Road, and combined with scale of returns and the dual price analysis of input factors,the paper puts forward the improvement path of natural gas investment performance in the target countries.The results show that① China’ s natural gas investment in Central Asia and North Asia, Soutin the middle or high efficiency zones; however,target countries in the CIS, Middle East Europe ain low efficiency areas. ＂ The scale of returns in high-efficient countries, since 2012, has been in cfactors influencing investment performance are technical level of those countries and their economic dependence on natural gas trade degree.③ Most of countries in mid-efficient zones are in the stage of scale increasing returns. The reserves, the condition of human geography and oil and gas cooperation witli China have become key factors that influence the performancInefficient countries are seeing increasing return stage driven by theexpansion of investment scale. The national economic don natural gas trade level and technical level are key factors that affect the performance of inefficient zone investment. In countries of inefficient area of central Asia,another key factor influences the performance of investment is resource status. The political factor is the key factor for the Middle East Europe and the CIS countries. Meanwhile, social condition is tSouth Asia natural gas investment, which means that present investment strategy should be adjusted to differen

关 键 词：“一带一路”战略 天然气投资绩效 SE-DEA模型 影子价格 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]