基于Maxmin公平的风险控制资源比例分摊方法  

Allocating project risk response resources based on the concept of proportional allocation and Maxmin fairness

作　　者：戴前智[1,2] 吴登生[2] 李建平[2] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学经济学院,合肥230009 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2017年第6期1602-1609,共8页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71571179;71425002);中国科学院青年创新促进会项目(2013112);合肥工业大学校博士专项科研资助基金(JZ2016HGBZ0996)~~

摘　　要：在项目风险管理实践中,如何将风险控制资源适当地分摊给各风险因素是一个重要议题.在风险控制资源总量有限的情况下,合理地分配风险控制资源将有助于提高风险控制效果,提高资源利用效率.考虑到比例分摊是一种在实践中被广泛采用的分摊方法,其直观的分摊原理更容易被决策者所理解和接受,因此引入比例分摊思想研究该问题.首先推导出项目风险控制资源分摊集的数学表达式,进而定义各定义风险因素的分摊效用函数,在此基础上以分摊效用值满足Maxmin公平为目标,构建风险控制资源分摊模型并给出相应的分摊算法.该模型被应用到软件项目开发实例中,结果表明该方法能够实现对风险控制资源的合理分摊,可以为项目经理提供有效的决策支持.In the practice of project risk management, project manager is often faced with an important problem： how many risk response resources should be appropriate allocated to each risk factor？ Because the risk response resource is limited, allocating risk response resource reasonably could be helpful to improve the effect of risk response. Considering the concept of proportional allocation is widely applied ill practice, its intuitive allocation principle can make it more easily understood and accepted by decision makers. Therefore, this paper introduces the concept of proportional allocation to solve the problem. Firstly, the mathematical expression of resource allocation set is deduced. Then the allocation utility function of each risk factor is defined. Based on it, under the principle of Maxmin fairness, the risk response resource allocation model can be built and the corresponding algorithm is provided. Finally, the model is applied to an actual software project development example, and the results show that the method can allocate the risk response resource reasonably. It can provide an effective decision support for the project manager.

关 键 词：项目风险控制 资源分摊 比例分摊 Maxmin公平 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]