我国人口老龄化影响经济增长的作用机制分析——基于中介效应视角的探讨  

On the Mechanism of Aging Affecting Economic Growth——Based on the Perspective of Mediating Effect

作　　者：冯剑锋[1] 陈卫民[2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学政治与公共事务管理学院,广东广州510275 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《人口学刊》2017年第4期93-101,共9页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目:发达国家应对老龄化政策研究(15ARK001);国家社科基金重点项目:中国特色现代社会福利制度框架设计研究(15ZDA050);广州人文社会科学重点研究基地资助项目

摘　　要：人口老龄化与经济增长的关系研究引起了学术界的高度关注,然而现有分析中少有针对人口老龄化如何影响经济增长等问题进行深入细致的探讨。为此,本文从中介效应角度出发,通过因素分解方法从理论上论证人口老龄化对经济增长的影响存在三种中介路径,即人口老龄化可以通过劳动生产率、劳动参与率以及劳动年龄人口比重影响经济增长速度,同时利用全国31个省市1990~2012年的统计数据验证三个变量确实存在显著的中介效应。经测算发现我国人口老龄化通过劳动生产率和劳动年龄人口比重显著提升人均GDP的增长速度,而劳动参与率所带来的影响则为负。但从增长途径来看,人口老龄化主要通过劳动生产率来影响经济增长速度。主要原因在于生育率下降后,父母增加了对孩子的教育投资,高等教育规模的扩张虽然延迟了大量年轻劳动力进入劳动力市场的时间,但同时通过知识教育和技能培训为劳动生产率的快速提升积累了重要的人力资本。因此从实证覆盖的时间来看,人口老龄化影响经济增长的过程中劳动投入更多表现为质量(生产效率)上的优势,即通过提高劳动生产效率来实现经济水平的快速增长。The relations however, there are few s hip between population aging and economic growth has aroused so much attention, tudies on how does the population aging affect economic growth. Therefore, this arti- cle theoretically analysis the effect of population aging on economic growth from the perspective of mediating effect and found out that there are three mediating paths, namely the population aging can affect the economic growth by labor productivity, labor participation rate and the proportion of working age population, moreover, using the statistical data of 31 provinces from 1990-2012, the empirical study indicate that these three variables really has a significant mediating effect. In addition, the estimate result of calculation shows that labor productive and the proportion of working age population contributed to the growth of GDP per capita, while the path of labor participation rate is opposite, however, by comparing the growth paths, aging is mainly through labor productivity to affect the economic growth rate. The main reason is that due to the declining fertility rate, most parents have increased the children＇ s educational investment, although the expansion of higher education has delayed a large number of young workers entering the labor market, but it also accumulated the important human capital. So, from the coverage of empirical study, labor input more performance in the quality （production efficiency） of the advantage in the process of population aging affects economic growth, that is, by relying on improving labor productivity to achieve rapid economic growth.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 经济增长 劳动生产率 劳动参与率 中介效应 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]