一种新的厄尔尼诺指数  

A new index for El Nino

作　　者：弓泓 王彰贵[2] 赵传湖 冯立成[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学,山东青岛266100 [2]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《海洋预报》2017年第3期17-25,共9页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41576029).

摘　　要：利用1950—2016年NOAA月平均扩展重构海表温度(ERSST)资料,计算了目前业务常用的El Ni?o指数,并比较了它们对El Ni?o事件的监测能力。结果表明:单一指标对不同类型的El Ni?o事件不能全面监测,且其对于事件强度的判定也具有局限性。据此提出了一种新的El Ni?o指数,新指数不仅能够较为全面的监测历史上所发生的不同类型的El Ni?o事件,而且可以合理划分El Ni?o事件的强度,解决了对El Ni?o事件强度定义的争议,为El Ni?o事件的监测提供了一个新的工具。同时,分析了各El Ni?o指数气候平均值的变化对指数判定El Ni?o事件的影响,结果表明气候平均值的升高将导致指数判定的弱El Ni?o事件次数减少。Using the monthly mean NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature （ERSST） analyses data from 1950 to 2016, the commonly used E1 Nifio index is calculated, and the monitoring abilities of several indices are examined. The results indicate that any single index cannot comprehensive monitor different types of E1 Nifio events. The commonly used E1 Nifio index has limitations on monitoring E1 Nifio events. Therefore, this paper proposes a new E1 Nifio index which not only can comprehensive monitor what has happened in the history at the different types of E1 Nifio events, but also can reasonably define the strength of E1 Nifio events. The new index can resolve the dispute in defining the intensity of E1 Nifio events, and provide a new approach to monitoring of E1 Nifio events. The study also analyses the impact of climate reference change on E1 Nifio index for defining El Nifio events, the results show that there will be fewer weak E1 Nifio events with the increase of climate reference.

关 键 词：El Nino事件 指数 强度 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]