长三角城市群经济与区域物流动态耦合协调发展研究——基于2005-2015年的市级面板数据  被引量:14

Research on Regional Economy and Regional Logistics Dynamic Coupling Coordinated Development of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration—Based on the Panel Data of Cities from 2005 to 2015

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作  者:梁雯[1] 陈广强[1] 司俊芳[1] Liang Wen Chen Guangqiang Si Junfang(School of Business Anhui University, Hefei Anhui 230601, China)

机构地区:[1]安徽大学商学院,安徽合肥230601

出  处:《北京化工大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年第2期12-19,共8页Journal of Beijing University of Chemical Technology(Social Sciences Edition)

基  金:国家社科基金项目"新型城镇化背景下小城镇电子商务物流发展研究"(15BJY117);安徽省教育厅人文社科重点项目"新型城镇化背景下安徽省农村物流发展研究"(SK2015A241);安徽大学研究生学术创新项目"长三角城市群经济与区域物流耦合协调发展研究"(yfc100272)

摘  要:基于系统演化的思想,构建复合系统的动态耦合模型,以长江三角洲城市群为研究对象,分析了2005-2015年区域物流系统与区域经济系统的演化速度和耦合度的演化趋势。研究结果表明:区域经济系统的发展轨迹与指数函数模型拟合最优,其演化速度呈倒U型,并在2008年达到最大值;区域物流系统的发展轨迹与三次方程模型拟合最优,其演化速度呈U型,并在2008年达到最小值。长三角城市群复合系统的耦合度呈倒U型,波动范围在0-90°之间,即两子系统处于协调发展阶段,相互影响、共同发展。根据演化趋势,耦合度明显可分为两个阶段:2005-2008年的上升阶段和2008-2015年的下降阶段。区域物流系统和区域经济系统之间的相互促进与相互制约,使长三角城市群复合系统在耦合度为45°处上下波动,即长三角城市群的协调发展状态具有周期性。Based on the idea of system evolution, constructing a dynamic coupling model of the complex system, and taking the Yangtze River Delta city group as the research object, this paper analyzes the evolution speed and the degree of coupling evolution trend of regional logistics system and regional economic system in 2005-2015. The results show that: the evolution of the regional economic system is fitted with the exponential function model, and the evolution speed of the system is inverted U type, which reaches the maximum value in 2008; The development of regional logistics system is fitted with the three equation model, and its evolution speed is U type, and it reaches the minimum value in 2008.The coupling degree of the complex system of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is inverted U, and its fluctuation is in the range of 0 to 90 degrees, which is the two systems in coordination development stage to mutual influence and common development; according to the evolution trend, the coupling degree obviously can be divided into two stages: the rise phase of 2005-2008 years and the decline phase of 2008-2015 years; mutual promotion and mutual restriction between regional logistics system and regional economic system, impel that the complex system of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is fluctuating at 45 degrees of the coupling degree, that Delta urban agglomeration is periodic. is to say, the coordinated development of Yangtze River

关 键 词:区域物流 区域经济 长江三角洲城市群 动态耦合 耦合度 协调发展 

分 类 号:F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F259.27

 

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