光学天文时纬残差异常在强震预测中的实践——纪念唐山地震暨光学天文时纬残差异常发现40周年  

Practice of Anomalies of Optical Astronomic Time-latitude Residuals in Strong Earthquake Prediction

作　　者：胡辉[1] 李语强[1] 苏有锦[2] 尹志强[3] 韩延本[3] 王锐[1] 王博[3] Hu Hui Li Yuqiang Su Youjin Yin Zhiqiang Han Yanben Wang Rui Wang Bo(Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011, China Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province, Kunming 65022g, China National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012, China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院云南天文台,云南昆明650011 [2]云南省地震局,云南昆明650224 [3]中国科学院国家天文台,北京100012

出　　处：《天文研究与技术》2017年第3期401-406,共6页Astronomical Research & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11503043);中国科技部攻关项目(2012BAK19B01-07)资助

摘　　要：为了进一步研究光学天文时纬残差异常在地震预测中的作用,介绍了光学天文时纬残差震前异常的发现和在地震预测中的研究实践,以及云南天文台光电等高仪的时纬残差异常变化与其周邻强震的对应关系,最后以讨论的形式给出了这种关联的可能的地球物理机制,目前在地震预测中的局限性和可能的解决途径。重要的是,2010年以来的预测实践进一步表明,利用光学天文时纬残差的同步异常提供地震预测信息,既没有虚报,也没有漏报。这就说明,它是完全可以作为地震预测的一种手段,投入地震预测实践中,值得更多重视和更加深入的研究。To investigate the practical application of the anomalies of optical astronomic time-latitude residuals in earthquake prediction, the article introduces the discovery of the anomalies of optical astronomic time-latitude residuals before earthquake, its research practice in earthquake prediction, and the actual relation between the anomalies of the time-latitude residuals of photoelectric astrolabe in Yunnan Observatory and the strong earthquakes around, and finally discusses its possible geophysical mechanism, current limitations in earthquake prediction and possible solution methods. The forecasting practice since 2010 especially shows that neither does it generate false forecasts, nor misses forecasts of major earthquakes. This indicates that it is can be used as a method of earthquake prediction for practical usage, such work requires more attention and further study.

关 键 词：光学天文时纬残差 铅垂线变化 地下物质运动 地震 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]