辽宁省建筑业景气指数波动分析与对策建议  

Prosperity Index Fluctuation Analysis and Suggestions of Construction Industry in Liaoning Province

作　　者：李园[1] 刘宁[2] 姜早龙[1] LI Yuan LIU Ning JIANG Zao-long(School of Civil Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha410012, China School of Management, Shenyang Jianzhu University, Shenyang 110168, China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学土木工程学院,湖南长沙410012 [2]沈阳建筑大学管理学院,辽宁沈阳110168

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2017年第2期43-48,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(12YJC630122);辽宁省高等学校优秀人才支持计划;沈阳市科技创新专项资金(F14-230-5-20)

摘　　要：为研究辽宁省建筑业总体运行趋势和景气指数波动状况,基于2000~2015年辽宁省15个与建筑业经济运行相关性较大的指标,采用时差相关分析方法,构建了辽宁省建筑业先行、一致和滞后景气指标体系。采用因子分析法确定权重,合成指数法计算景气指数,绘制图表。计算三类指标增长率,分别绘制先行指标与一致指标增长率波动图、滞后指标与一致指标增长率波动图。结合数据显示,对景气指数、指数增速、典型变化节点进行分析,最后针对制度政策、行业管理、企业管理等方面提出对策建议。To study the overall operation trend and prosperity index fluctuation of the construction industry in Liaoning province, through screening and classification of time difference correlation analysis, prosperity index is constructed based on the 15 indexes from 2000 to 2015 which are great relevance to the construction economic operation industry. Using factor analysis to determine the weight and composite index method to calculate prosperity index, the figures and tables are obtained. The growth of three kinds of indicators are calculated and the fluctuation diagram of leading indicator and consistent indicator, lagging indicator and consistent indicator are obtained. Combined with data result, some suggestions are put forward according to the policy, industry management, enterprise management and so on.

关 键 词：辽宁省建筑业 景气指数 波动分析 

分 类 号：F282[经济管理—国民经济]