供给侧改革下房地产市场影响因素分析  

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Supply Side Structural Reform of the Real Estate Market

作　　者：张巍[1] 顾岳汶 ZHANG Wei GU Yue-wen(School of Construction Management and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, Chin)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学建设管理与房地产学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2017年第3期142-146,共5页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：重庆市建委项目(2013-465-004)

摘　　要：为分析在新常态经济背景下,一线城市房地产市场具体的影响因素及效果,选取了2001~2015年北京、上海、深圳、广州4个城市的面板数据,结合供给侧改革,从供给、需求两个方面进行分析,通过格兰杰因果关系,脉冲响应分析,以及建立面板数据的回归方程,探讨了这些因素对于房价的影响。实证结果显示,不同城市对应的显著影响因素不尽相同,整体而言一线城市房地产行业受房地产投资额和人均收入的影响作用较大。针对房地产企业库存高企的现状,分别从市场监管、城镇化、土地供应量以及公积金发放等角度出发,给出了相关的政策建议。In the new normal economic background, the differentiation phenomenon of current first and second tier cities＇ real estate market is more obvious. In order to analyze the specific influence factors and effects, selecting the panel data of 2001-2015 years of first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, combined with supply side reforms, analyzes from two aspects supply and demand, by Grainger causality, impulse response analysis, and the establishment of the panel data regression equation, the effect of these factors on house price is analyzed. The empirical results show that the significant factors of different cities are not the same, the real estate industry is affected by the investment and per capita income. Based on the empirical results and the present situation of the high inventory of real estate enterprises, we give some suggestions from the aspects of market regulation, urbanization, land supply and fund.

关 键 词：一线城市 房地产市场 VAR模型 供给侧改革 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]