我国人口年龄结构的人力资本积累效应研究  

Research on Effect of Age Structure of Population on Accumulation of Human Capital in China

作　　者：陈纪平[1] Chert Jiping

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学经济学院

出　　处：《兰州学刊》2017年第7期176-185,共10页

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(项目编号:13BGL097);教育部人文社科项目(项目编号:12YJC790009)

摘　　要：人口增长模式的现代转变导致一国人口年龄结构在一定时期内年轻化之后持续老龄化,这种变化会促进家庭增加子女人力资本投资从而提高社会整体人力资本积累水平。基于我国人口普查教育与健康数据的趋势分析表明人力资本积累水平随着人口年龄结构年轻化而显著提高,1980年以来的相关投入数据也从成本角度支持了这一结论。对1993年至2014年数据的Granger因果性分析结果表明人口年龄结构对人力资本积累有着显著的单向因果关系,基于省际数据的面板模型分析也获得一致的结果。After modern transforming in growth pattern, one country＇ s population become younger firstly, and then older. These changes of age structure always increase households＇ expenditure in health and education for their children, and as a result enhance whole country＇ s accumulation level of human capital. Based on the data of health and education from population census, a trend analysis shows that the stock of our country increased obviously as the population became younger since new China was set up, which is consistent with the result of relative analysis based on the data from 1980 to 2014. Furthermore the one - way Granger causality from age structure of population to accumulation of human capital was found in the county -level data from 1993 to 2014, which is also supported by the econometric analysis with panel model based on the province -level data from 2002to 2014.

关 键 词：人口红利 人口年龄结构 人力资本 

分 类 号：F241[经济管理—劳动经济]