日本存在非凯恩斯效应吗?——基于景气低迷与财政困境两难局面的分析  

Is There a Non-Keynesianism Effect in Japan:An Analysis of the Dilemma of Economic Downturn and Financial Difficulties

作　　者：崔岩[1] CUI Yan(Research Center for the Economies and Politics of Transitional Countries RCEPTC, Liaoning University, Shenyang, Liaoning, 1 1013 6, China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学转型国家经济政治研究中心,辽宁沈阳110136

出　　处：《现代日本经济》2017年第4期1-9,共9页Contemporary Economy OF Japan

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"日本民主党执政后的经济转型研究"(10BGJ010)

摘　　要：20世纪90年代以来,日本经济陷入了长期超低速增长状态。为使经济摆脱低迷状态,日本政府实施积极的财政政策,同时由于人口老龄化导致的社会保障支出增加,使得日本政府财政状况不断恶化,而经济一直难以转入正常的增长状态,因此日本陷入了景气低迷与财政困境的两难局面。西方学者发现,财政政策具有非凯恩斯效应,实施稳健的财政政策具有增加总需求的效果。显然,非凯恩斯效应能够使日本摆脱上述困境。利用1983年第一季度至2016年第三季度数据,使用向量自回归(VAR)模型分析日本财政政策效果,结果表明,长期看,日本并不存在非凯恩斯效应。这一结论也和日本经济的现实状况相吻合。上述结论包含了进一步的政策意义,试图一举解决经济低迷和财政困境的两难局面的愿望难以实现,还是要在经济复苏与健全财政两个相互矛盾的目标中寻找一个优先的目标。Since the 1990s, the Japanese economy has being in a prolonged low growth or even in stagnation. To get the economy out of the downturn, Japan government implemented proactive fiscal policy, while due to population ageing government financial situation worsened with increased social securi- ty expenditure and it is difficult for the economy to turn into the normal growth, thus Japan fell into a dilemma of economic downturn and financial difficulties. Western scholars have discovered that non - Keynesianism effect of fiscal policy, prudent fiscal policy increasing the total demand and clearly non - Keynesianism effect could take Japan out of this dilemma. Based on the data from the first quarter of 1983 to the third quarter of 2016, adopting VAR model to analyze the effect of fiscal policy in Japan, the result shows that there is no non - Keynesianism effect in Japan in the long run. This conclusion is also in line with the reality of the Japanese economy. The result mentioned above contains further policy implications ： the desire to get out the dilemma of the economic downturn and the fiscal difficulties is difficult to achieve, after all, it is need to find a covery versus strengthening the financial system

关 键 词：日本 非凯恩斯效应 景气状况 财政困境 稳健财政政策 

分 类 号：F813.313.0[经济管理—财政学]