货币替代的变动趋势及影响因素分析--基于2001-2016年的数据  

Tendency of Currency Substitution and Its Main Influencing Factors: Based on Data of Year 2001-2016

作　　者：韩萍[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济研究院,山东济南250100 [2]山东交通学院经济与管理学院,山东济南250357

出　　处：《经济问题》2017年第7期46-52,63,共8页On Economic Problems

摘　　要：基于2001年1月至2016年10月的数据研究我国货币替代的变动趋势及其主要影响因素。结果表明,2008年以来外币对人民币的替代呈现上升趋势,尤其是2013年经济进入新常态阶段以来,外币对本币的替代作用进一步增强。影响货币替代的因素按影响力度排序依次为货币供应量、利差、通货膨胀率和汇率。其中,汇率在短期内对货币替代的影响力度最大而货币供应量在长期内的影响力度最大。因此,政府应加强对货币政策和汇率的调控以使货币替代维持在可控范围内。The existence of currency substitution can reduce monetary policy independence and result in man- agement difficulties, which makes it one of main factors in macroeconomic regulation. Based on data of year 2001 to 2016, this article analyzes changing tendency of currency substitution and its main influence factors. The result shows that the currency substitution has increased from year 2008. Along with china come into new normal stage af- ter year 2013, the substitution increased further. The factors that influence currency substitution are money supply, interest rate spreads, inflation rate and exchange rate according to the importance. In the short run, exchange rate influence currency substitution more, while in the long run monetary supply influence more. Policy makers should conduct more supervision on monetary policy and exchange rate in order to keep currency substitution in control.

关 键 词：货币替代 货币供应量 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F820.3[经济管理—财政学]