基于新型城镇化发展的人口与用电消费趋势预测  

Forecast of Population and Electricity Consumption Trends Based on New Urbanization

作　　者：钟成元[1] 陈祥平[1] 徐孟霞[1] 何彬[1] 石雪梅[2] 叶斌[2] 

机构地区：[1]国网安徽省电力公司岳西县供电公司,安徽安庆246600 [2]国网安徽省电力公司经济技术研究院,合肥230022

出　　处：《电力与能源》2017年第3期283-288,共6页Power & Energy

基　　金：国家电网公司科技指南项目"适应新型城镇化的配电网协调规划关键技术及实证研究"(52120916000400k)

摘　　要：以国家新型城镇化规划提出的目标为前提,采用改进的莱斯利模型预测全国人口总量与区域分布;进而以此预测结论为基础,兼顾世界发达国家用电消费历史实绩,在充分研究国内当前人口布局条件下的全国用电差异化特点的基础上,分别采用人均用电量目标法、总量人口、经济法等预测全国用电消费总量水平与分布,同时采用数学模型群补充预测,做到相互校验,保证预测结论的科学性,为开展适应新型城镇化的配电网规划提供基础性依据。Based on the goal of the new urbanization plan,the improved Leslie Model is applied to predict the total population and regional distribution of China.Then based on this forecast conclusion,considering the historical achievements in electricity consumption in developed countries,this research fully studies the national electricity differentiation characteristics under the condition of current domestic population layout,and predicts the national power consumption level and distribution by means of electricity consumption per capita-object method,total population and economic method,respectively.At the same time,the mathematical models are used to supplement prediction in order to check each other,ensure scientific forecast conclusion,and provide fundamental basis for distribution network planning.adaptive to the new urbanization.

关 键 词：新型城镇化 人口预测 人均用电量 电网规则 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]