人口流动与住房市场去库存关系研究  

Population Mobility and De-Stocking of Real Estate Market

作　　者：况伟大[1] 李丽君 钟萧阳 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学 [2]北京外事学校

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2017年第4期29-32,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目<房价波动与房贷违约风险>(批准号:71373276)的资助

摘　　要：房地产去库存问题是中国近些年许多城市存在的严重问题,但现有文献并未深入研究人口流动对去库存的影响。本文使用2003-2014年中国46个城市流动人口和住房市场数据考察了人口流动和住房供给弹性对住房库存的影响。研究发现,人口流入和经济增长有助于去库存,但高房价不利于去库存;供给弹性越大的三四五线城市,去库存问题越严重,越不利于发挥流动人口的作用;限购政策对去库存无效果。因此,应通过调节人口流动和住房供给弹性以及降房价和促进经济持续增长因地制宜地去库存。The problem of de-stocking in real estate market is a major issue that exists in many cities in China during the past few years. However, the influence on de-stocking that exerts from population mobility has not been lucubrated. This paper uses the statistics of the population mobility and estate market in 46 major cities in China from 2013 to2014 to investigate such impact from the supply flexibility and mobility. Research shows that population inflow and economic boom are conductive to de-stocking, while a high housing price would not; the larger the flexibility in developing and undeveloped cities, the more serious the problems had been, the narrower the part could mobility play;purchasing restrictions had no effects on de-stocking. Therefore, measures such as adjusting the population mobility, supply flexibility and lowering the estate price should be taken to promote economic boom continuously and to adapt destocking to its local conditions.

关 键 词：人口流动 供给弹性 住房市场去库存 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F299.23