中国PPI与CPI背离原因分析  

The Causes of Divergence between PPI and CPI in China

作　　者：刘雪晨[1] 张晓晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2017年第4期88-91,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：自2008年国际金融危机爆发以来,国际国内环境出现新变化,国内价格水平变动也出现了新的特征:CPI与PPI的走势出现长时间的背离,达历史新高。本文基于国际国内现阶段特征背景,综合了我国宏观货币政策、财政政策以及国际价格变化因素,建立VAR模型来探究我国CPI与PPI的背离原因。研究表明:国际商品价格下跌是我国现阶段价格指数背离的主要原因;央行近年来宽松货币政策一定程度上加大了价格指数的背离;而财政政策的影响较小,短期内缓和了CPI与PPI的背离,从长期看其影响并不稳定。Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, the international and domestic environment has undergone new changes and the domestic price level also appeared new features： there has been an unprecedented long-term divergence between CPI and PPI. Based on international and domestic situations at this stage, combined with macro monetary policy, fiscal policy and international price fluctuations,this article constructs a VAR model to explore the causes of divergence between PPI and CPI. It is shown that the decline of international commodity price is the main reason.The loose monetary policy rose up the divergence of the price indexes to some degree.The fiscal policy has a less and short-term effect, which however would not be stable in the long run.

关 键 词：CPI与PPI背离 财政政策 货币政策 国际大宗商品价格 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F726