测算我国技术进步率及其经济增长贡献率的新方法  

A New Method to Calculate the Rate of Technological Progress and their Contribution Rates of Economic Growth in China

作　　者：杨旭[1] 田艳慧[1] 郝翌[1] 张伊珍 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2017年第7期57-72,共16页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：北京交通大学基本科研业务费"对我国宏观经济中不可观测变量的新研究"(B15JB00230)的资助

摘　　要：研究目标:更准确地估算我国的技术进步率、TFP增长率及其对经济增长的贡献率。研究方法:以经济增长理论为基础,利用AMOS软件,构建以技术进步率和人均资本增长率为潜变量的多指标多原因结构方程模型(MIMIC Model)。利用MCMC贝叶斯法估计模型参数,最后用贝叶斯插补法估算两个潜变量。研究发现:利用新方法估算出的技术进步率更加合理,新方法也显示出了技术进步与其他经济变量之间更为明确的作用机制。研究创新:首次利用结构方程模型(SEM)估算中国技术进步率。研究价值:为SEM模型在经济领域中的应用提供了规范。Research Objectives： This article gets a more reasonable estimation of China＇s rate of technological progress （RTP）, total factors productivity （TFP） growth rate, and their con- tribution to economic growth. Research Methods： Based on the theory of economic growth, the paper applies AMOS to construct a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause Model （MIMIC Model） in which RTP and growth rate of per capita capital are treated as two latent varia- bles. With the Bayesian method and Bayesian imputation function in AMOS, parameters in the model and those two latent variables are estimated. Research Findings： By the new method, the estimation of RTP is more reasonable, and clearer mechanisms between techno- logical progress and other economic variables are embodied. Research Innovations： It is the first time to use SEM model to estimate the RTP. Research Value： The paper provides a standard for the application of SEM model in economic field.

关 键 词：技术进步 全要素生产率 结构方程 贝叶斯插补法 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]