新兴经济体自由贸易协定(FTA)战略的贸易促进效应研究——以印度为例  

Trade Promotion Effect of FTA Strategy in Emerging Economies:A Case Study of India

作　　者：张恒龙[1] 葛尚铭 

机构地区：[1]上海大学经济学院 [2]上海合作组织公共外交研究院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2017年第7期122-134,共13页World Economy Studies

摘　　要：当前以金砖国家为代表的新兴经济体发展迅速,而其中印度经济表现尤为强劲。文章运用双重差分倾向得分匹配法(PSM-DID),对印度FTA战略的出口促进效应进行了评估,并以此分析新兴经济体FTA战略的贸易促进效应。结果显示:印度的FTA战略使印度的出口增长了50%~60%;共同洲际及共同殖民地因素对印度的出口具有明显的促进效应;涉及到单个FTA伙伴的出口促进效应时,显著性并不稳定;FTA战略对出口的影响存在滞后效应。这一研究结论对新兴经济体,尤其是中国的经济发展提供了可资借鉴的宝贵经验。Nowadays the emerging economies represented by the BRICS countries flourish,and India's economic performance is particularly strong. Based on the difference in differences-propensity score matching( PSM-DID) approach,this paper evaluates the export promotion effect of India's FTA strategy,and analyzes the trade promotion effect of FTA strategy in emerging economies. Our results show that India's FTA strategy makes India's exports grew by 50% ~ 60% on average; and that common colonial and common intercontinental factors have significant promotion effects on India's exports. The significance is unstable when it comes to the export promotion effect of a single FTA partner,and the FTA strategy has lagged effect on exports. This research conclusion provides valuable experience for the economic development of emerging economies,especially China.

关 键 词：新兴经济体 FTA战略 双重差分法 出口效应 

分 类 号：F753.51[经济管理—国际贸易]