特朗普为何当选?——对2016年美国总统大选的历史反思  

Why Was it Possible for Donald Trump to Win the Election? A Historical Reflection on the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

作　　者：王希[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学历史学系 [2]美国宾夕法尼亚州印第安纳大学历史系

出　　处：《美国研究》2017年第3期9-29,共21页The Chinese Journal of American Studies

摘　　要：2016年美国总统大选是近年来争夺最激烈、火药味最浓、政治分化最严重的一次大选。特朗普作为一个"圈外人",在选前并不被媒体和民意测验看好,但却意外地赢得了大选。促成特朗普当选的原因是多方面的,包括总统选举进程的"专业化"与"精英化"操作、极化政治的发展与体制僵局的常态化、全球化时代美国价值观的分离与对峙,以及由"权力重组"和"权利重组"衍生而来的"选民重组"。这些因素深刻地影响了2016年美国总统大选的结果,并给21世纪的美国民主政治带来了严峻的挑战。The 2016 U. S. presidential election was regarded as the most fiercely fought,emotionally charged and divisive contest for power in recent years.Donald J. Trump,a political 'outsider ' who was least favored by the media and pre-election opinion polls,won a surprise election victory. What made it possible for Trump to win the presidency? How did he manage to win the election? Was his election an accidental success or was it the result of the instigation of more in-depth forces as embedded in the electoral system and the electoral culture? This article takes a historical perspective to examine the election of Trump by looking at some of the more profound causes,including the professional-and elite-operated electoral process,the increasingly polarized party politics and frequent legislative deadlocks in recent decades,the confrontations of divided American core values in the age of globalization,and the subsequent realignment of voters as derived from the reconfiguration of political power and the reconstitution of rights for modern citizenship. The author argues that each of these factors had played a role in shaping the outcomes of the presidential election and has posed challenges to American democracy in the 21 st century.

关 键 词：美国政治总统选举 2016特朗普极化 政治反建制 选民重组 价值观分离 

分 类 号：D771.2[政治法律—政治学]