中国生产性服务业与先进制造业的互动关系——基于Lotka-Volterra模型的实证分析  

The Interactive Relationship between Productive Service Industry and Advanced Manufacturing Industry in China——An Empirical Analysis Based on Lotka-Volterra Model

作　　者：王正新[1] 孙爱晶[1] 邱风[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江财经大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2017年第7期88-93,共6页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(14BJY080);国家自然科学基金项目(71571157)

摘　　要：在供给侧结构性改革背景下,引导生产性服务业与先进制造业的互动发展,是促进我国产业升级的重要方式。文章运用生态共生理论中Lotka-Volterra模型理论分析两者之间的互动机理,基于1993-2016年数据对两者间的互动关系进行实证检验,采用非线性最小二乘法估计Lotka-Volterra模型中的竞争参数并分析两者互动关系的均衡点及其稳定性。结果表明,我国生产性服务业与先进制造业之间存在类似于种群生态系统中的互利共生关系,双方互为投入带动彼此产业发展并最终达到产业间的稳定均衡状态,最后对如何加快中国的产业升级提出相应的政策性建议。In the context of the structural reform of supply side, it is one of the important ways to promote China＇s industrial upgrading to guide the interactive development of producer services and advanced manufacturing. This paper applies the Lotka-Volterra model in the theory of Ecological Symbiosis to analyze the interaction mechanism between the two industries, makes an empirical test on the interactive relationship between them based on the data from 1993 to 2016, employs the nonlinear least square method to estimate the competitive pa- rameters in Lotka-Volterra model and analyze the equilibrium point and stability of the interactive relationship between them. The results indicate that productive service industry and advanced manufacturing industry are similar to the mutual benefit symbiotic relationship in the ecosystem in China, they can reach a harmonious and stable state eventually by sharing materials and information as well as transforming and upgrading. In the end, the paper offers some political suggestions on how to speed up industrial upgrading in China.

关 键 词：生产性服务业 先进制造业 lotka-Voherra模型 互利共生 

分 类 号：F26[经济管理—国民经济] F124