基于产业结构调整情景下的中国钢铁行业大气污染排放预测  

FORECAST ON AIR POLLUTION EMISSION OF CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY BASED ON INDUSTRIAL RESTRUCTURING

作　　者：甄瑞卿[1] 张红[1] 董广霞[2] 伯鑫[3,4] 程刚 郭倩倩[3] 王龙飞[3,4] 赵晓宏[3,4] 李时蓓[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]北京京诚嘉宇环境科技有限公司,北京100053 [2]中国环境监测总站,北京100012 [3]环境保护部环境工程评估中心,北京100012 [4]环境保护部国家环境保护环境影响评价数值模拟重点实验室,北京100012 [5]重庆市环境工程评估中心,重庆401121

出　　处：《环境工程》2017年第6期114-117,179,共5页Environmental Engineering

基　　金：环境保护部基金课题(1441402450017-2);国家重点实验室开放基金课题(16K01ESPCT)

摘　　要：以钢铁环境统计数据为基础,分析了2012年钢铁行业二氧化硫、氮氧化物、烟粉尘、二氧化碳等排放情况;基于发达国家钢铁产业结构现状,建立了未来我国工业化后的钢铁产业结构优化调整情景,分析钢铁行业大气污染物减排情况。经计算,2012年中国钢铁企业排放二氧化硫、氮氧化物、烟粉尘、二氧化碳分别为191.88万,51.84万,59.14万,15.04亿t,河北省二氧化硫、氮氧化物、烟粉尘、二氧化碳排放量最大,分别占全国总排放量的22.59%、30.35%、35.54%、25.19%;预测产业结构调整后,中国钢铁行业排放二氧化硫、氮氧化物、烟粉尘、二氧化碳排放量分别为16.8万,18.9万,13.86万,6.62亿t,与2012年现状情景相比,分别减少91.24%、63.54%、76.56%、55.98%。Based on the statistical data of steel environment, emission of sulfur dioxide, nitric oxide, smoke and dust, and carbon dioxide from steel industry in 2012 was analyzed; based on the status of steel industrial structure in developed countries, the optimization and adjustment of China＇ s steel industrial structure after industrialization were planned, and reduction of air pollutants in steel industry was analyzed. After calculation, China＇ s enterprises emitted 1. 9188 million tons of sulfur dioxides, 0. 5184 million tons of nitric oxides, 0. 5914 million tons of smoke and dust, and 1. 504 billion tons of carbon dioxides in 2012, and most of them were emitted by Hebei Province, respectively accounting for 22.59% , 30. 35% , 35.54% and 25. 19% of total national emissions; after adjustment of industrial structure, those emitted by China＇ s steel industry were 0. 168 million tons,0. 189 million tons, 0. 1386 million tons, and 0. 662 billion tons, respectively reducing by 91.24% , 63.54% , 76.56% , and 55.98% compared with 2012.

关 键 词：大气污染 中国 钢铁行业 结构调整 温室气体 

分 类 号：X757[环境科学与工程—环境工程]