水库区均质边坡安全可靠度实用分析方法  

Simplified Analysis of Safety Reliability of Homogeneous Slopes in Reservoir Area

作　　者：罗方悦 张嘎[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2017年第7期106-110,115,共6页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51479096)

摘　　要：在水库建设和运行期,库区边坡安全对水库施工和运行影响显著,合理评价水库区边坡的安全性,在保证水库安全和评估环境影响等方面均有重要意义。通过合理简化水库区边坡的强度参数不确定性和水位变化随机性,建立了水库区边坡安全可靠度的实用分析方法。该方法包括2个算法:(1)通过分析,提出了基于土强度参数二维正态分布的边坡安全系数概率分布算法;(2)采用Weibull分布描述水位变化规律,提出相关算法,得出了水位变化条件下边坡安全系数的一维先验分布;该方法共有6个参数。采用提出的方法对典型算例进行了计算分析,结果验证了该方法的有效性。该方法对水库区边坡安全评价等方面的研究具有参考意义。The safety of slopes near reservoir has significant impact on the construction and operation of reservoir. Reasonable assessment of slope safety is of vital importance in assuring the safety of reservoirs and evaluating envi-ronmental effect. A new simplified method was proposed to analyze the safety reliability of slopes near the reservoir on the basis of reasonable simplification of the uncertainties in the soil strength parameters and the randomness of water level change. An algorithm was proposed to obtain the probability distribution of safety factor according to the two-dimensional normal distribution of soil strength parameters at a given water level. The Weibull distribution was used to describe the stochastic characteristic of water level. The probability distribution of safety factor could be computed using the proposed algorithm. Six parameters were required for the method. The method was used to ana-lyze typical slope case and its effectiveness was preliminarily confirmed. The method provides references for the safety evaluation of slope in reservoir area.

关 键 词：水库区边坡 水位变化 极限平衡方法 可靠度 安全系数 

分 类 号：TV697.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]