PM_(2.5)污染的社会成本——基于74城市动态气候经济综合模型分析  

The Social Costs of PM_(2.5) Pollution:Empirical Analysis Based on 74 Cites Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy

作　　者：裴辉儒[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2017年第7期81-87,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目<气候变迁背景下西部地区生物多样性保护管理中的价值识别;展示与捕获研究>(14BJL103)

摘　　要：中国的PM_(2.5)已经产生巨大的社会成本。借助气候经济动态综合模型(DICE-2013R),综合分析中国74个城市中与PM_(2.5)社会成本有关的福利目标、经济变量和地球物理等模型,估算这些城市PM_(2.5)的社会成本。研究结果发现:2017年各城市PM_(2.5)的单位社会成本介于16.21亿~232.15亿元之间,所有城市的单位社会成本总量达到9 863.94亿元,预计到2030年,单位社会成本总量将达到15 000亿元;若74个城市PM_(2.5)浓度都下降到35μg/m^3或10μg/m^3,社会总成本将达到14万亿或40万亿元,将产生高昂成本;治理PM_(2.5)必须走市场化碳金融之路。Chinese PM2.5 has generated enormous social costs. We analyzed this kind of costs by using DICE-2013R. In the first, we comprehensive analysis the benefit target, economical variables and geophysical model of 74 Chinese cities, which related to the social cost of PM2.5. And then, we estimate their social costs of PM2.5. Finally, we put forward the relevant conclusions and recommendations. The results showed： The unit social costs of PM2.5 between 16.21 billions23. 215 billion yuan in cities in 2017, the total unit social cost of all cities reached 986. 394 billion yuan, the total unit social cost predicts will reach 1.5 trillion yuan in 2030. If the 74 cities PM2.5 concentrations were reduced to 35 ug/m3 or 10 ug/ m3, the total social cost of all cities will reach 14 trillion or 40 trillion yuan. It will produce higher cost If we governance PM2. 5, we must go the way of marketization carbon finance.

关 键 词：PM2.5 气候经济动态综合模型 社会成本 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济] X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]