中国旅游业与农业融合发展的实证研究  

An Empirical Analysis on the Integrated Development of Tourism and Agriculture Industry in China

作　　者：夏杰长[1] 徐金海[2] XIA Jiechang XU Jinhai(National Academy of Economic Strategy, Beijing 100836 Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [2]中国社会科学院研究生院

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2016年第1期77-83,共7页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程项目"中国服务业发展趋势与战略研究"(2015CJY003)

摘　　要：本文选取1990—2013年反映中国旅游业与农业发展水平的相关数据,构建VAR模型,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、方差分解等计量方法研究中国旅游业与农业融合发展的相互关系。结果表明:农业、入境旅游和国内旅游之间存在着一种长期稳定的均衡关系;农业增加值每增长1%,国内旅游收入约增长0.35%;入境旅游收入每增长1%,国内旅游收入约增长0.58%;中国旅游业与农业的融合发展是互为促进的;国内旅游业的波动主要来源于自身的波动和农业波动的影响,农业波动主要源于自身波动的影响,而与入境旅游和国内旅游波动的无较大关系。This papr selects the data from 1990 to 2013 that can reflect the development level of the tourism and agriculture industry in China. Besides,the VAR model and variance decomposition were used to study the integration development of the tourism and agriculture industry. The results indicates that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between inbound tourism,domestic tourism and the agriculture industry; and the elasticity of the agriculture industry and inbound tourism to domestic tourism were respectively at about 0. 58 and 0. 35. Moreover,the fluctuations of domestic tourism were mainly from the impact of their own volatility and agriculture fluctuations,and fluctuations in the agriculture industry were mainly due to the impact of the agriculture industry itself,but there was no greater relationship with inbound tourism and domestic tourism fluctuations.

关 键 词：旅游业 农业 产业融合 VAR模型 方差分解 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]