冬奥会对北京经济的影响预测  

Forecasting the Economic Impact of Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games

作　　者：顾海兵[1] 张晓燕[1] GU Haibing ZHANG Xiaoyan(Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2016年第9期27-36,共10页Research on Economics and Management

摘　　要：奥运会的举办必然会对举办地的经济产生巨大影响,即形成奥运经济。中国在获得2022年冬奥会举办权后,其经济效应成为国内经济学者研究的焦点。本文主要运用投资乘数和旅游乘数的计量经济学模型,预测冬奥会前后十年对北京GDP的影响。具体结论为:冬奥会前,随着投资的逐渐增加,最终消费的增长,冬奥会拉动GDP增长的百分点逐渐扩大,可以拉动北京GDP平均每年增加2.1%;冬奥会对经济的影响在举办年达到峰值,可以拉动北京GDP增长3.0%;2022年以后,冬奥会对两地滑雪产业产生的长期促进作用将逐渐释放,可以为北京GDP年均贡献1.6%。冬奥会前后十年年均带动北京GDP增加2.2%。The holding of the Olympic Games will have a huge impact on the economy of the host country, that is is Olympic Economy. After obtaining the right to host the 2022 Winter Games in China, the economic impact of the host country has become the focus of Chinese economic scholars. This paper mainly uses the econometric model of investment multiplier and tourism multiplier to predict the economic effect of ten years before and after the Winter Olympics on the GDP of Beijing. The results show that：before the Winter Games, with the gradual increase in investment and the growth of final consumption the percentage of GDP growth stimulated by the Olympic Games will gradually expand, and increase Beijing annual GDP average by 2.1% ;the impact of the Winter Games on the economy will reach the peak in the Olympic year, and increase the GDP in Beijing by 3.0% ;after 2022, The long-term effect promoted by Winter Games on the sking industry will be released, and in crease Beijing average annual GDP by 1.6%. Therefore, the Beijing average annual GDP will increase by 2.2% ten years before and after the Winter Games.

关 键 词：2022年冬奥会 投资乘数 旅游乘数 经济预测 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F224