新立油田压裂增产量预测模型的建立及应用  

Establishment and Application of an Incremental Production Prediction Model by Fracturing in Xinli Oilfield

作　　者：马福军[1] 李楠[1] 季世侠 Ma Fujun Li Nan Ji Shixia(PetroChina Jilin Oilfield Company, Songyuan, Jilin 138000, China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油吉林油田分公司,吉林松原138000

出　　处：《特种油气藏》2017年第3期86-89,108,共5页Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs

基　　金：中国石油吉林油田分公司科技项目"新立油田老井重复压裂挖潜技术对策研究"(JLYTYS20154041)部分成果

摘　　要：针对新立油田压裂选井中增产量估算存在较大误差这一问题,运用了灰色关联分析方法,从大量指标中优选出与增产量关联度较高的指标进行逐步回归,进而建立更可靠的压裂增产量预测模型。将模型应用于新立油田AA2区块12口井,结果表明,模型预测增产量与实际相符较好,相对误差为9.28%。研究成果可为压裂选井提供可靠的理论依据。In view of the problem that there is bigger error in incremental production estimation in fractured wells in Xinli Oilfield,grey correlation analysis method was applied to conduct stepwise regression of the indices that were optimized from many indices and have higher association degree with incremental production,then an incremental production prediction model by fracturing with higher reliability was established. This model has been applied in 12 wells in AA2 Block in Xinli Oilfield. The result indicates that there is higher coincidence between incremental production predicted by this model and the actual data,with relative error of 9. 28%. The study result can provide reliable theoretical foundation for selecting fracturing wells.

关 键 词：压裂 增产量 灰色关联分析 逐步回归 预测模型 新立油田 

分 类 号：TE348[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]