连片特困区城镇化进程与农民增收效应的空间计量分析——以武陵山片区为例  

Spatial Econometric Analysis of Urbanization Impact on the Growth of Farmers' Income in Contiguous Destitute District:Take Wuling Mountain Area as an Example

作　　者：王家庭[1] 臧家新 卢星辰[1] 毛文峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学中国城市与区域经济研究中心

出　　处：《城市观察》2017年第3期71-88,共18页Urban Insight

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(12BJY048)

摘　　要：基于2000—2012年武陵山片区69县市(区)的面板数据,考虑空间异质性,运用空间统计的ESDA法和空间计量等方法,考察了片区农民收入与城镇化进程的空间相关性及其冷热点格局,比较产业城镇化和人口城镇化的农民增收效应。结果表明:(1)武陵山片区各县市(区)农民人均纯收入呈现出高度的空间正相关性,形成以丰都、彭水、武隆、黔江为中心的热点区及洪江、中方和鹤城为中心的次热点区;人口城镇化和产业城镇化空间相关性显著,热点区主要集中在张家界片区,有向周边蔓延趋势;铜仁地区处于"三低"分布的冷点区。(2)进一步的空间模型估计显示,人口城镇化是片区农民增收效应的主要动力,产业城镇化对农民收入增长亦有正效应,但带动能力偏弱。(3)农业技术水平、物质资本投资和经济密度的提高有利于农民增收,相反,片区金融发展的现状对农民增收存在抑制作用。根据以上结论提出了相关政策建议。Based on the panel data of 69 counties （districts） in Wuling Mountain Area from 2000 to 2012, considering the spatial heterogeneity and using the method of ESDA for spatial statistics and spatial econometrics, the paper explores the spatial correlation of farmers＇ income and the process of urbanization and also the hot spot pattern, and compares the effects of the growth of farmers＇ income on the industrial urbanization and population urbanization. Results indicates： （1） per capita net income of farmers in Wuling mountain area counties （districts） is highly positive correlated; （2） a further spatial model estimates show that population urbaniza- tion is the main momentum of the growth of farmers＇ income, while industrial urbanization is also positively correlated but not as strong; （3） the level of agricultural mechanization, the increase of material capital investment and economic density is conducive to the increase of farmers＇ income, while the current situation of financial development in the area has a restraining effect. According tothe above conclusions, some suggestions are put forward.

关 键 词：武陵山片区 城镇化 农民增收 空间自相关 空间滞后模型 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]